[Edaily Reporter Seong Ju-won] It has been 100 days since the first shots of war were fired between the United States and Iran. The Middle East conflict, which began on February 28 (local time) with airstrikes against Iran by the U.S. and Israel, has seen localized clashes in the Strait of Hormuz continue unabated despite a dramatic ceasefire agreement reached on April 8. Major foreign media outlets report that negotiations have reached an impasse with no end in sight.

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◇100 Days Since the Ceasefire… Drones and Missiles Still Flying
On the 6th (local time), U.S. Central Command announced that it had shot down four Iranian suicide drones launched toward the Strait of Hormuz. Subsequently, as a defensive measure against further attacks, it struck coastal surveillance radar bases in Ghoruk and Qeshm Island, Iran. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) immediately retaliated by firing seven ballistic missiles at the Ali Al-Salem Air Base in Kuwait and the U.S. Navy’s 5th Fleet stationed in Bahrain. The U.S. military stated that it intercepted six of the missiles, while the remaining one failed to reach its target.
The Iranian Foreign Ministry strongly condemned the U.S. attack, calling it a violation of the April 8 ceasefire agreement. According to Reuters, Iran warned that “the U.S. will be held accountable for the consequences of its illegal actions.”
This skirmish erupted just days after Iran fired 13 ballistic missiles and 17 drones at Kuwait earlier this month, killing one person and injuring dozens near the airport. Localized clashes have continued even after the ceasefire agreement.
In an interview with NBC, U.S. President Donald Trump stated that Iran’s remaining missile capabilities are at “21 to 22 percent” of what they were at the start of the conflict, adding, “It’s a significant amount, but it’s nothing compared to when they first attacked.” However, he also noted, “Iran is strong and proud. It will take them some time to do what they need to do,” suggesting that a negotiated settlement is not imminent.
◇ The Strait of Hormuz, the ‘world’s energy artery,’ remains blocked
The Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately 20% of the world’s energy shipments pass, has been effectively blockaded since the outbreak of hostilities. According to Bloomberg ship-tracking data, as of the morning of the 6th, no civilian merchant ships were observed passing through, and only three ships in each direction were confirmed to have passed the previous day. Compared to the pre-war average of over 100 ships passing through daily, the strait is effectively closed.
A source familiar with U.S. Central Command told The New York Times (NYT) that over the past two months, the U.S. military has assisted approximately 100 civilian merchant ships in transiting the strait. However, even this figure represents only a tiny fraction of normal traffic volume.
Oil prices surged, briefly exceeding $100 per barrel, but have recently fallen slightly due to slowing demand from China and increased U.S. crude exports. On the 6th, U.S. crude was trading in the $90 range per barrel. President Trump told reporters, “It’s at $96, but at first, people said it would go up to $300.”
Bloomberg reported that the United Kingdom and France have prepared plans to lead a multinational operation to clear mines from the Strait of Hormuz within days if an agreement is reached between the U.S. and Iran.

◇The key obstacle in negotiations is Iran’s frozen assets
The key reason the peace talks have stalled is that while Iran is demanding the early release of frozen assets from the U.S., the Trump administration finds it difficult to accept this. According to The Wall Street Journal (WSJ), Iran wants to receive $12 billion (approximately 18.7164 trillion won) immediately upon reaching a preliminary agreement, followed by an additional $24 billion (approximately 37.4328 trillion won) during the subsequent 60-day negotiation period.
Mousavi Rezaei, an advisor to Iran’s Supreme Leader, told CNN, “$24 billion is not a large sum for the U.S. This is not U.S. money; it is our money.” On the other hand, since President Trump has vehemently criticized the Obama administration for providing cash to Iran in the past, taking similar measures would inevitably create a political burden for him.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has made it clear that there will be no sanctions relief or asset unfreezing until Iran clearly reduces its nuclear program and hands over its stockpile of highly enriched uranium. Ali Baez, a senior adviser at the International Crisis Group (ICG), told the WSJ, “For Iran, the release of frozen assets is not merely an incentive but a down payment proving the credibility of diplomacy and domestic legitimacy,” adding that “this is the issue Iran will resist most strongly.”
Iran’s frozen assets are estimated to total $100 billion (approximately 156 trillion won), including revenue from oil exports blocked by sanctions. Most of these funds are tied up in China, Qatar, Oman, and Iraq, as access to Iran’s sanctioned banking system has been cut off.

◇The Lebanon Variable… Negotiations Become an Even More Complex ‘Higher-Order Equation’
Another variable making the ceasefire negotiations even more difficult is Lebanon. Iran maintains the position that there will be no negotiations with the U.S. unless a comprehensive ceasefire is reached between Israel and the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah. The U.S., on the other hand, is attempting to separate the two sets of negotiations.
According to Reuters, Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem rejected the ceasefire agreement signed between Israel and the Lebanese government. The reason cited was that the conditions for the withdrawal of Israeli forces were missing. Israel maintains that it will continue military operations inside Lebanon to dismantle pro-Iranian armed groups adjacent to its territory. The Lebanese Army announced on the 6th that three of its soldiers—two officers and one enlisted soldier—had been killed in an Israeli attack.
◇Pakistan Steps Back into the Spotlight as Mediator
Diplomatic mediation efforts to break the deadlock have also resumed. Pakistani Interior Minister Mosin Raja Naqvi arrived in the Iranian capital, Tehran, on the 6th to hold talks with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. Iran’s semi-official Tasnim News Agency reported that Minister Naqvi would deliver a “special letter” from the Pakistani Chief of Staff and Prime Minister to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei.
Minister Nakvi is a key figure who has played a mediating role, having welcomed U.S. Vice President JD Vance and others during the first in-person high-level U.S.-Iran negotiations held in Islamabad last April. It appears that Qatar, which has been playing a supporting role behind the scenes, is taking a step back, while Pakistan is returning to the forefront.
General Rudolf Haykal, Commander-in-Chief of the Lebanese Armed Forces, is also scheduled to visit Pakistan over the weekend. This is interpreted as being related to Pakistan’s mediation efforts.

◇ Korean Companies Accelerate Restructuring of 'Post-Middle East' Supply Chains
The 100th day of the war has triggered significant structural changes in South Korea’s industrial sector. Major industries, including semiconductors, automobiles, aviation, and oil refining, are accelerating efforts to restructure their supply chains to reduce dependence on the Middle East.
#Samsung Electronics and #SK Hynix are implementing multiple procurement channels for specialty gases—such as helium and hydrogen bromide—and key materials required for the production of advanced semiconductors, including High Bandwidth Memory (HBM). #Hyundai Motor and #Kia have not experienced direct production disruptions but anticipate that rising logistics costs and raw material prices will become more pronounced in the second half of the year. #KoreanAir and #Asiana Airlines are continuing to reroute some flights to and from the Middle East and Europe to avoid Middle Eastern airspace, while shipping companies such as #HMM and #HyundaiGlovis are adjusting their routes and maintaining emergency response systems. The oil refining industry is reviewing ways to reduce its dependence on Middle Eastern crude oil and diversify imports to include crude from the U.S., South America, and Africa.
According to KOTRA (Korea Trade-Investment Promotion Agency), the number of consultations received by the Middle East Emergency Response Help Desk from March 3 to May 21 reached 734. While there were many short-term requests in the early stages of the war regarding logistics disruptions and cost increases, there is now a growing number of issues requiring structural responses, such as the supply of raw materials, contacting buyers, and contract modifications.
Seraph, a U.S. supply chain consulting firm, warned that it could take years, not months, for the supply chain shocks caused by the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz to recover. Ambrose Conroy, CEO of Seraph, pointed out, “With the risk of war becoming the baseline assumption, insurance premiums and security costs will rise, and transportation networks will be redesigned; these costs will not disappear even if a ceasefire agreement is signed.”
Experts note that South Korea and Japan are considering expanding their stockpiles of critical minerals and energy, while global companies are shifting their strategies from efficiency-focused supply chains to stability-focused ones.
The outcome of the war with Iran ultimately depends on the decisions made by leaders on both sides, amid anti-war sentiment within the U.S. facing President Trump, the landscape of the November midterm elections, and Iran’s deepening economic crisis. According to a May survey by the U.S. polling firms NYT and Siena Poll, 64% of Americans said that going to war with Iran was the wrong decision.