[Edaily Reporter Seong Ju-won] Speculators betting on a decline (buying put options) are flocking to semiconductor exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which had been in the spotlight as beneficiaries of artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure investment. Just days after hitting an all-time high last week, these ETFs have plummeted by more than 10%, becoming a key target for bearish bets in the options market.

According to CNBC on the 9th (local time), the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) continued its downward trend, falling more than 10% from the all-time high it set last week. In the options market, purchases of put options—betting on a decline in the stock price—surged dramatically. Based on ThinkOrSwim data, as of noon that day, SMH put trading volume was four times that of call trading, and put buying volume exceeded call buying by more than five times. Of the approximately $350 million (about 534 billion won) in option premiums traded, $260 million (about 397 billion won) was concentrated in puts.
◇ AI Beneficiaries: From Favorites to Targets of Heavy Selling—A Sudden Reversal
Semiconductor stocks led the market throughout the first half of this year, riding the wave of investment in AI data centers. However, the mood shifted following a sharp decline on the 5th.
Don Kaufman, co-founder of TheoTrade, said in an interview with CNBC, "The selling on the 5th was never going to be a one-off event." He explained that when put option buying increases, market makers short the underlying stock or sell Nasdaq futures to hedge their risk, and this selling pressure drives stock prices lower, leading to a vicious cycle where the decline triggers further put buying. He warned, "If asset managers or individual investors engage in panic selling, the decline could become even steeper."
◇Spillover to QQQ and DRAM
Bearish sentiment also spread to the Invesco QQQ ETF, which tracks the Nasdaq 100, which has a high weighting of tech stocks. Of the $3.7 billion in QQQ options traded that day, approximately $2.5 billion was in put options. The largest contract by dollar value was a $700 in-the-money put option expiring that day, with $44 million in premiums exchanged. Trading in $715 put options expiring on the 15th also totaled $35 million.
Even the Roundhill Memory ETF (DRAM), which had seen strong call buying, saw its market trend deteriorate in the latter part of the day, with puts (over 24,000 contracts) beginning to outnumber calls (less than 15,000 contracts).
◇ Concerns Over Fallout for Samsung and SK Hynix
The sharp decline in U.S. semiconductor stocks could have a direct impact on the Korean stock market. #Samsung Electronics and #SK Hynix are closely linked to the global AI semiconductor supply chain, including NVIDIA and TSMC, so a deterioration in investor sentiment in the U.S. semiconductor sector could be immediately reflected in foreign investor demand.
The key variable is whether this decline will end as a technical correction or mark the beginning of a structural shift in which expectations for AI infrastructure investment are reevaluated. If panic among institutional and retail investors coincides, as Kaufman warned in his vicious cycle scenario, the pace of the decline could accelerate.