[Edaily Reporter Park Soon-yeop] Analysts suggest that as Europe’s joint next-generation fighter jet development project enters a stalemate, the medium- to long-term export appeal of South Korea’s KF-21 fighter jet could increase. The assessment is that if the development schedule for 6th-generation fighter jets is delayed, the KF-21 could emerge as a non-U.S. alternative between the American F-35 and existing 4.5th-generation fighter jets.
Chae Woon-saem, an analyst at Hana Securities, stated in a report on the 12th, “The stalemate in Europe’s 6th-generation fighter jet development is a factor that increases the KF-21’s appeal to buyers in the global fighter jet market.” Hana Securities maintained its “Overweight” investment rating for the defense sector and kept its “Buy” rating and target price of 230,000 won for #Korea Aerospace Industries.

According to the report, FCAS (Future Combat Air System) is a joint European next-generation air combat system development project initiated by France and Germany in 2017. Spain later joined the initiative, which aims to integrate manned fighters, unmanned aircraft, sensors, data links, and a combat cloud into a single network. The core of the project is the development of the Next Generation Fighter (NGF), a 6th-generation manned fighter designed to eventually replace the Rafale and Eurofighter.
However, it is understood that the joint development of the NGF—a central pillar of FCAS—has recently entered a phase where it is effectively difficult to continue. Hana Securities, citing a Reuters report, explained that the leaders of Germany and France have determined that continuing the joint development of the NGF under the FCAS project is difficult. Consequently, analysts suggest that the scope of FCAS cooperation is likely to be narrowed to the network and software domains, excluding the joint development of the NGF.
The impasse stems from conflicts over operational concepts and industrial leadership among the participating nations. While France required a fighter capable of operating with nuclear weapons and aircraft carriers, Germany and Spain focused on a relatively air force-centric operational concept. From an industrial perspective, France’s Dassault Aviation demanded full design authority over the fighter jet, the right to select key suppliers, and final control over the development schedule and performance, while Germany and Spain’s Airbus sought control over core technologies, work allocation, and access to intellectual property, leading to ongoing conflicts.
Researcher Chae noted that such conflicts could similarly arise not only in the FCAS but also in the GCAP (Global Combat Air Programme), another joint 6th-generation fighter development project being pursued by the UK, Italy, and Japan. This is because joint development projects carry significant governance risks not only due to technical complexity but also regarding cost sharing, technology sharing, industrial leadership, and the potential for expanding new partnerships.
If the development of 6th-generation fighters is delayed beyond schedule, the commercial viability of existing high-cost, high-performance 5th-generation platforms and 4.5th-generation fighter platforms could increase in the global fighter market. Currently, the F-35 is the representative high-cost 5th-generation platform, but its high operating costs and dependence on the United States are cited as burdens. In contrast, 4.5th-generation upgraded fighters such as the F-16V, Gripen E, and Rafale have the advantage of being proven platforms.
In this context, the KF-21 is evaluated as a 4.5-generation platform currently undergoing mass production that can evolve to a higher tier through future performance upgrades. Researcher Chae believes it is highly likely that the KF-21 will lead to discussions on additional performance upgrades or a follow-up Block III program after the completion of domestic mass production of 120 units. Consequently, he explains that the KF-21’s appeal to potential buyer nations seeking non-U.S.-made 5th- and 6th-generation fighters—rather than the F-35—could increase.
Researcher Chae stated, “If joint development projects reach an impasse, the development of 6th-generation fighters by major nations could be delayed even further than planned,” adding, “This could enhance the commercial viability of high-cost, high-performance 5th-generation fighters—currently centered on the U.S. F-35—and the 4.5th-generation fighter platforms below them in the future global fighter market.”