AI Servers Drive MLCC Supply and Demand… “Attention on Widespread Price Hikes Ahead of Peak Season”
iM Securities Report
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Production Bottlenecks for Equipment and Servers Also a Supply-and-Demand Factor
[Edaily Reporter Park Soon-yeop] Interest in the multilayer ceramic capacitor (MLCC) market is growing once again. This is due to rising demand for high-value-added products used in artificial intelligence (AI) servers, which is driving up capacity utilization rates at major manufacturers and prompting price hikes in some distribution channels. Analysts in the securities industry suggest that, with the peak season approaching in the second half of the year, investors should watch to see if price increases for MLCCs will expand to include general-purpose products. Go Eui-young, an analyst at iM Securities, maintained an “Overweight” rating on the electrical and electronics sector on the 19th and identified the following as key points to watch in the MLCC industry: △the third-quarter peak season △direct-supply MLCC prices △long-term supply agreements (LTAs) △supply bottlenecks. (Chart: iM Securities)
MLCCs are key passive components that help ensure a stable flow of current in electronic circuits. They are used in large quantities not only in smartphones, PCs, and automobiles but also, more recently, in AI servers. In particular, AI servers require significantly more MLCCs than standard servers. According to iM Securities, while a standard server contains around 2,000 MLCCs, an NVIDIA H100-based server is estimated to contain over 20,000; a GB200 NVL72 rack, approximately 441,000; and a Rubin VR200 NVL72 rack, between 500,000 and 600,000. Researcher Ko pointed out that recent MLCC price movements are still primarily concentrated in distribution channels. He explained that in April and May, major MLCC manufacturers such as Samsung Electro-Mechanics, DAIYO YUDEN, and Yageo notified passive component distributors of price increases, and preemptive stockpiling demand for some generic products has begun to emerge. The key question is how widely these price increases will spread across product lines. While low-value-added MLCCs account for only 10–15% of sales for Korean and Japanese MLCC manufacturers, they represent 30–40% of total volume. If leading manufacturers reduce their focus on low-specification products and concentrate on high-specification products in conjunction with the mass production of the Rubin platform, the spillover effect—where demand shifts to second-tier manufacturers—could increase significantly. Researcher Ko explained, “This could serve as a basis for expanding the range of products subject to price hikes ahead of the third-quarter peak season,” adding, “During the 2017–2018 cycle, price hikes that began with commodity products repeatedly spread to a wider range of items.” Whether direct-supply MLCC prices will increase is also a key variable. Price hike movements confirmed so far have been largely limited to distribution channels. However, it is understood that some second-tier manufacturers are exploring direct-supply price increases for the second half of the year, and some first-tier manufacturers are also considering such increases. #In the case of Samsung Electro-Mechanics, since more than 80% of its MLCC sales come from direct-supply customers, price hikes for direct-supply products could be reflected more directly in earnings estimates. Long-term supply agreements (LTAs) are also seen as an indicator of changes in the MLCC market. Apple showed signs of moving toward signing an LTA late last year, and Samsung Electro-Mechanics mentioned during its first-quarter earnings conference call that requests for LTAs are spreading to AI-focused big tech companies. iM Securities stated that LTAs for some items have already been finalized, while others are still in progress. Recent LTAs are primarily being signed for new server-grade products, and the price terms are analyzed to be favorable. For server-grade MLCCs, as capacity increases, the number of layers also increases; to boost capacity while keeping the product size and height fixed, the thickness between layers must be reduced. The explanation is that as the manufacturing difficulty rises, prices inevitably follow suit. However, from the customers’ perspective, supply stability is becoming more important than MLCC prices. Although MLCCs account for a small portion of the total system cost, supply disruptions could affect AI server production schedules. Consequently, there is speculation that customers may accept price increases or take proactive steps to secure supply volumes. Bottlenecks are also emerging on the supply side. According to iM Securities, MLCC supply lead times have lengthened to around 20 weeks for most product lines. While lead times were typically 4 weeks for standard products and 8 weeks for high-specification products in the past, it is understood that delivery times have recently increased even for low-specification products. The fact that orders are increasing while inventory levels in distribution channels remain low is another factor exacerbating supply-demand pressures. Equipment lead times are also lengthening. According to some companies, lead times for high-end MLCC process equipment have increased to about 1.6 years. Even during the MLCC boom of 2017–2018, equipment bottlenecks acted as a factor limiting supply expansion. The expansion of MLCC production for servers is itself a bottleneck, as manufacturing lead times for these components are two to three times longer than those for standard MLCCs. Although companies such as Samsung Electro-Mechanics and Murata are stepping up their capacity expansion efforts, analysts note that actual effective production capacity is unlikely to increase that quickly. Samsung Electro-Mechanics’ passive component production capacity has grown by an average of only 5% annually over the past decade, and last year, its production capacity reportedly declined significantly. The AI server MLCC market also holds significant growth potential. Based on a bullish scenario, iM Securities estimates that the AI MLCC market size will grow from 1.1 trillion won in 2025 to 8.2 trillion won in 2030. During the same period, the share of server MLCCs in the total market is projected to expand from 5% to 25%. Researcher Ko predicted, “In the second half of the year, the tight supply-demand environment is likely to spread to IT MLCCs,” adding, “In 2027–2028, the adoption of new technologies such as VPD and embedded PCBs could act as new bottlenecks, further exacerbating the supply shortage.”
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