[Edaily Reporter Hyera Lee ] The main focus of the domestic stock market this week is whether the KOSPI—which has surpassed the 9,000 mark for the first time in history—will not only stabilize but also continue to rise. Even amid the previous ceasefire, Israel launched renewed airstrikes on Lebanon and Iran reimposed a blockade on the Strait of Hormuz, leading the market to closely monitor increased volatility stemming from uncertainty in the Middle East. Amid this, the securities industry is placing greater weight on the possibility that a market trend centered on the semiconductor sector—where earnings growth is being confirmed—will continue for the time being.

According to MP Doctor on the 21st, over the past week (the 15th–19th), the KOSPI closed at 9,052.43, up 928.80 points (11.43%) from its closing price on the 12th, the last trading day of the previous week. Following its first-ever breach of the 9,000 mark on the 18th, the KOSPI rose to 9,385.59 during intraday trading on the 19th—the last trading day of the week—setting yet another all-time high.
However, in the latter part of the trading day, the index gave up its gains following news that the signing ceremony for a memorandum of understanding (MOU) on ending the war between the U.S. and Iran had been delayed, closing at the 9,052 level.
Market attention is focused on whether the KOSPI can stabilize above the 9,000-point mark. NH INVESTMENT & SECURITIES projected this week’s KOSPI range to be between 8,200 and 9,500. While leaving the upper end of the range open, the firm took into account profit-taking sentiment following the recent sharp rally and potential volatility stemming from Middle East-related factors.
There are calls in the market to remain vigilant against sharp market volatility. In fact, the KOSPI 200 Volatility Index (VKOSPI), which had shown signs of stabilization by falling to 77.06 at one point during the week, surged 4.14% on the 19th alone, closing at 83.57.
Lee Jae-man, an analyst at Hana Securities, stated, “At one point this month, the VKOSPI even surpassed the peak (89 points) reached during the global financial crisis,” adding, “Last week, the market capitalization of SK hynix(000660) rose to 95% of SamsungElectronics(005930)(excluding preferred shares), maximizing the concentration effect. “It is also important to note that a short-term correction in the KOSPI occurred last May after this ratio peaked at 93% and began to decline,” he added.
Furthermore, macroeconomic variables such as the situation in the Middle East and inflation are highly likely to contribute to increased market volatility this week as well.
Even after the signing of the memorandum of understanding, Israel carried out airstrikes on Lebanon, and Iran declared a renewed blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. As tensions in the Middle East have escalated once again, related developments are expected to increase short-term volatility in the domestic stock market.
Inflation indicators also warrant close attention. The Federal Reserve decided to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at this month’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. However, since Chairman Kevin Warsh publicly expressed skepticism regarding the dot plot (a graph in which FOMC members anonymously indicate their projections for future benchmark interest rates), market sensitivity to upcoming inflation data is expected to increase. This week, the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for May will be released.
Nevertheless, the securities industry generally expects that the bullish trend centered on the semiconductor sector—which drove the KOSPI’s sharp rally—will remain intact.
Kim Jong-min, a senior research fellow at SamsungSecurities, said, “As we move into the latter stages of the bull market, the inflow of liquidity into the market is slowing; therefore, it is highly likely that demand will be concentrated in the semiconductor sector, where earnings are being confirmed, rather than driving up the index as a whole.”
The key factor that will determine the direction of domestic semiconductor stocks is Micron’s earnings report, scheduled for the 24th (local time). Amid ongoing expectations for a semiconductor boom, Micron’s earnings are seen as a key factor that will influence overall investor sentiment in the domestic stock market.
Lee Kyung-min, an analyst at DaishinSecurities, predicted, “If Micron’s earnings estimates meet or exceed market expectations, expectations for a long-term boom in the memory semiconductor sector will grow even further.” He added, “This will lead to stronger earnings momentum in the domestic semiconductor sector, which will have a positive impact not only on semiconductor stock prices but also on further gains in the KOSPI.”
On the other hand, a cautious outlook prevails regarding sectors other than semiconductors and the KOSDAQ market. In particular, regarding KOSDAQ, analysts raised the possibility that it will continue to underperform the KOSPI as retail investors—who had been a major source of liquidity—continue to withdraw funds.
Lee Jae-won, an analyst at Yuanta Securities Korea, explained, “Given that current supply-demand dynamics, earnings, and interest rate conditions are all favorable for the KOSPI, the KOSDAQ is likely to remain relatively weak until we see retail investors return to the market and earnings estimates rebound.”
For the market as a whole, Morgan Stanley Capital International’s (MSCI) annual market classification review on the 23rd is also a key variable. This is because if MSCI includes South Korea in its “under observation” list for developed markets, expectations for a revaluation of the domestic stock market as a whole could rise.
There are also major industry events on the horizon. “Bio USA,” the world’s largest biotech event, and “InterBattery,” featuring South Korea’s three major battery manufacturers, are among the events scheduled to take place. Attention is also focused on whether short-term volatility will increase in related sectors and individual stocks.