[Edaily Reporter Park Jung-Soo ] Although trading volume on the domestic stock market has swelled to around 100 trillion won, stock prices of securities firms continue to lag. While securities stocks are typically considered representative market-sensitive stocks that directly benefit from increased trading volume, analysts note that they have been significantly underperforming the market recently due to a combination of supply-and-demand concentration centered on semiconductors and concerns over a slowdown in earnings momentum in the second half of the year.

According to MP Doctor on the 23rd, the securities sector index has fallen 18.67% since the start of the second quarter. During the same period, the KOSPI rose 62%, meaning that despite being a cyclical sector, securities stocks have failed to keep pace with the market’s returns.
Jeon Bae-seung, an analyst at LS SECURITIES, explained, “The securities industry is a cyclical sector where the direction of the stock market is linked to the profitability of securities firms, so it has historically shown a high correlation with the KOSPI.” He added, “However, the sector has been on a downward trend since hitting a peak in early May, when first-quarter earnings were announced.”
The current state of the securities industry itself is not bad. From April to mid-June, the average daily trading volume on the domestic stock market was 92 trillion won, a 38% increase compared to the first quarter. The average monthly margin balance also rose 16% from the previous quarter to 36 trillion won.
On a cumulative basis through June, the average daily trading volume on the domestic stock market stood at approximately 101 trillion won, maintaining the 100 trillion won level following May (106 trillion won). The cumulative average daily trading volume of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) for the second quarter also reached 25 trillion won, a 42% increase from the previous quarter.
Given this environment, securities firms’ second-quarter earnings are expected to be solid. The market estimates that if trading volume remains at current levels, the second-quarter net income of securities firms under coverage will, on average, exceed consensus estimates by about 20%.
Nevertheless, the reason securities stocks continue to underperform is attributed to a supply-and-demand skew toward the semiconductor sector. Analysts note that the KOSPI’s gains were driven by the dominant performance of the semiconductor sector—which accounts for a large share of market capitalization—and that funds concentrated on major semiconductor stocks such as SamsungElectronics(005930)and SK hynix(000660), failing to spread to the securities sector.
Park Hye-jin, an analyst at DaishinSecurities, noted, “The concentration of capital in specific sectors has become extremely pronounced,” adding, “Given that securities firms typically exhibit a ‘high in the first half, low in the second half’ earnings pattern, stock prices tend to reflect this trend more quickly.”
Weakening policy momentum also played a role. Last year, as stock market revitalization policies and measures to strengthen shareholder returns took effect across all sectors, the securities sector’s return outperformed the market by more than 30 percentage points. Recently, however, policy expectations for the stock market as a whole have weakened somewhat following the passage of the third amendment to the Commercial Act.
Caution regarding earnings is also weighing on securities stocks. While trading volume has surged, the market capitalization turnover ratio has not risen further from its historical highs. The possibility of a slowdown in liquidity growth due to changes in domestic and international monetary policy is also cited as a factor that could increase financial market volatility.
In addition, major securities firms’ exhaustion of credit extension limits, a decline in valuation and disposal gains from large-scale investment assets, and the potential deterioration of the real estate finance environment are cited as potential burdens for the second half of the year.
Researcher Jeon stated, “There are relatively many factors of uncertainty regarding the earnings outlook for securities stocks in the second half,” adding, “We cannot rule out the possibility of a slowdown in profit growth or even a decline in the securities sector’s earnings in the second half of 2026 compared to the first half, or in 2027 compared to 2026.”
At the individual stock level, some companies are standing out for their attractive valuations. DaishinSecurities assessed #NH INVESTMENT & SECURITIES as a highly attractive investment, noting that despite recent weakness in its stock price, its price-to-book ratio (PBR) has fallen to around 1x, while its dividend yield has risen to 5.8%.
Hana Securities identified #KOREA INVESTMENT HOLDINGS and #SamsungSecurities as its top picks. For KOREA INVESTMENT HOLDINGS, the firm expects an increase in valuation gains driven by the strong stock market, as its subsidiaries expand the use of proprietary funds from deposits and savings accounts to stocks and ETFs. Regarding SamsungSecurities, the firm analyzed that the high proportion of revenue from brokerage and wealth management means it will benefit relatively more from an increase in trading volume.
Experts view the securities sector as currently in a phase where short-term earnings expectations coexist with concerns over a slowdown in momentum in the second half of the year.
Researcher Jeon stated, “Given that positive second-quarter earnings are expected, a short-term bullish approach is valid at this point, as the gap between the KOSPI and securities sector stock prices has widened.” However, he added, “Whether the stock market will continue its upward trend in the second half of the year will be the key factor, and since the average PBR of major securities firms already exceeds 1x, the investment appeal of the securities sector within the financial sector is relatively low.”