[Edaily Marketin Reporter LEE GEON-EOM ] NICEHoldings announced that it has maintained the credit rating of Doosan Fuel Cell(336260)’s unsecured bonds at ‘BBB,’ but has changed the rating outlook from ‘Stable’ to ‘Negative.’ A negative outlook indicates a high likelihood of a credit rating downgrade within the medium term.

This decision reflects the company’s deteriorating profitability due to initial costs incurred while entering new businesses, such as solid oxide fuel cells (SOFCs), and quality issues with existing products, as well as the outlook that it will be difficult to alleviate the burden of increased debt in the short term.

Doosan Fuel Cell has maintained strong competitiveness in securing orders in the domestic market based on its core phosphoric acid fuel cell (PAFC) technology. In fact, from 2023 to 2025, the company secured approximately 60% of the total installed capacity in tenders for the general hydrogen power generation market. However, the company recorded a massive operating loss last year due to a combination of initial yield issues, delivery delays, and low-margin orders in its SOFC business—which began mass production in the third quarter of last year—as well as quality issues with previously delivered PAFC main units.

Lee Young-kyu, a senior researcher at NICE Credit Rating, explained, “With the production capacity of domestic fuel cell manufacturers exceeding market demand, operating profitability has significantly declined due to a combination of initial growing pains associated with the adoption of new technologies and quality-related costs.” He added, “In particular, given that the projected volume of the Chonbang bidding market is on a downward trend, it is difficult to expect a dramatic turnaround in performance in the short term.”

The company’s financial structure has also weakened due to the increased burden of investment. Since 2022, Doosan Fuel Cell has faced persistent cash shortages stemming from rising inventory burdens, investment in a new SOFC plant, and a technology licensing agreement with U.S.-based HyAxiom, which it has addressed through external borrowing.

Although large-scale capital expenditures are expected to decrease following the completion of the SOFC plant last June, improvements in financial stability are likely to stagnate due to diminished cash generation capacity. The “EBITDA/Financial Expenses” ratio—a key indicator for rating downgrade reviews by NICE Ratings—remained at 1.2 times this year, following a deficit recorded last year.

Senior Researcher Lee noted, “While the burden of capital expenditures has peaked following the plant’s completion, preemptive spending due to quality issues and structural working capital pressures are acting as downward pressures,” adding, “Unless stable profitability is secured, it will take a considerable amount of time to meaningfully improve the overburdened debt structure.”

Market volatility resulting from changes in government policy is another burden. While the introduction of the Clean Hydrogen Power Generation Mandate (CHPS) has increased the predictability of project progress, the planned volume for this year’s general hydrogen auction market amounted to only 125 MW—a decrease from the average of approximately 175 MW over the past three years. The market size after 2027 also remains fluid, depending on the future policy direction of the Basic Plan for Electricity Supply and Demand.

NICE Ratings plans to closely monitor whether Doosan Fuel Cell secures final contracts for the general hydrogen volumes it wins in auctions, the effects of the business restructuring with Hyaxiom, and whether its SOFC performance—which has incurred significant initial costs—stabilizes.