[Edaily Reporter Park Sun-Yeop ] While customer resistance to the sharp rise in memory semiconductor prices is intensifying, analysts say this is not a factor significant enough to break the upward cycle of the domestic semiconductor industry. Although allegations of price-fixing and the possibility of China replacing Korean semiconductors have been raised simultaneously, the assessment is that there are limited alternatives capable of actually altering the supply-and-demand structure.
Ryu Hyung-geun, an analyst at Daishin Securities, stated in a report on the 30th, “Given that a strong upswing is underway, external pressures could intensify,” but added, “This is unlikely to become a realistic threat facing the memory semiconductor industry, at least through the 2026–2027 period.”

Recently, foreign media have reported a series of stories alleging price-fixing in the memory semiconductor market, alongside reports that Big Tech companies are considering using Chinese semiconductors as alternatives. Allegations have been raised that suppliers artificially restricted the production of standard DRAM to trigger sharp price hikes, with the $3 billion long-term supply contract between Tencent and CXMT, as well as Apple’s consideration of adopting Chinese semiconductors, cited as prime examples.
However, Daishin Securities believes that Chinese semiconductors are unlikely to immediately serve as a card to boost customers’ bargaining power. This is because, aside from product quality issues, there is a lack of sufficient volume to significantly impact supply and demand. Analyst Ryu explained, “While the possibility of exporting small volumes through shell companies remains, it cannot bring about a meaningful change in the supply and demand of memory semiconductors.”
In particular, CXMT is assessed as having limited capacity to address LPDDR5 and LPDDR5x, which are currently facing the most severe supply shortages. Researcher Ryu projected that LPDDR5 would account for 30% or less of CXMT’s total production this year. He also noted that the company’s production capacity for the DRAM 1a-class process—required for mass production—is unlikely to exceed 80,000 wafers per month within the year, and that some production capacity must be allocated to the development of High Bandwidth Memory (HBM).
Domestic demand in China is another variable. Analysts note that Chinese smartphone manufacturers are also experiencing memory shortages, making it difficult for them to supply sufficient volumes to external customers. The report mentioned that, in the case of Xiaomi, there are concerns that shipments could decline by as much as the mid-40% range compared to the previous year.
In the long term, while the easing of China’s semiconductor regulations may partially alleviate the short-term supply crunch, from the U.S. perspective, it could result in strengthening China’s self-reliance in semiconductors. Accordingly, Daishin Securities assesses that the U.S. is highly likely to continue policies aimed at preventing the mass production of cutting-edge processes in China and curbing technology leakage.
Researcher Ryu emphasized that the recent controversy should not be overinterpreted as a debate over whether memory semiconductors have reached their peak. He stated, “The market has always experienced growing pains during upcycles, and the long-held perception that the memory semiconductor industry is cyclical is fueling anxiety over ‘when to sell,’” adding, “This is not the time to get bogged down in premature debates about market peaks.”
On the contrary, the assessment is that competition among cloud companies to secure memory is intensifying. He explained that investments to secure a leading position in the artificial intelligence (AI) market continue to rise, and clients are prioritizing market leadership over financial burdens. He noted that as the point at which the gap between supply and demand reaches its peak is pushed back, the magnitude of price increases could expand further.
Positive factors expected to drive a stock price rebound in the second half of the year and beyond include HBM price negotiations, the expansion of long-term contracts, and shareholder returns. Analyst Ryu predicted, “The 2027 HBM price negotiations will conclude on terms more favorable to the supply side,” adding, “This will lead to an increase in the average selling price (ASP) of DRAM driven by HBM.”
He further noted, “The period from 2026 to 2027 will be one of mandatory production discipline,” and predicted, “An expansion of long-term contracts to secure a stable supply chain will materialize during the third quarter.” He identified shareholder returns as a key topic for the second half of the year, anticipating that strengthened shareholder return policies and pragmatic financial planning will continue to drive corporate value growth.