[Edaily Reporter Seong Joowon ] Hedge fund investor Michael Burry, who predicted the 2008 global financial crisis and served as the real-life inspiration for the movie "The Big Short," has significantly increased his short bets on artificial intelligence (AI)-related stocks.

On the 30th of last month (local time), Burry disclosed new short positions in Tesla, Caterpillar, semiconductor equipment maker Applied Materials, and the semiconductor exchange-traded fund (ETF) iShares Semiconductor (SOXX) on his Substack. He also increased his existing short position in NVIDIA.
Burry cited the massive semiconductor investment plans announced by SamsungElectronics(005930)and SK hynix(000660)as the rationale behind these bets. “The immediate catalyst for today’s rally was the massive investment plan announced in South Korea,” he wrote, adding, “I view this as ‘the beginning of the end.’” The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported that SamsungElectronics and SK hynix announced plans to build a semiconductor hub worth well over $500 billion (approximately 776.25 trillion won). South Korean media outlets reported that this amounts to 800 trillion won and involves plans to build four new factories in the southwestern region, including Gwangju.
◇First Short Sale of Caterpillar… “Current Stock Price Doesn’t Match Actual Business Performance”
Burry revealed that he had shorted Caterpillar for the first time. According to Bloomberg, he disclosed that he had taken a short position at $1,060.98, and Caterpillar’s stock price fell nearly 7% on July 1 after hitting an all-time high of $1,064.90 on June 30. Bloomberg reported that Caterpillar has been moving in a similar pattern to semiconductor stocks, as it supplies heavy equipment needed for the construction of AI data centers.
Burry stated, “Caterpillar has always been a stock that has delivered good returns on long (buy) positions in the past,” but admitted that he was somewhat surprised by this short position himself. He explained the rationale for the short position, saying, “(The current stock price) is completely out of line with the actual business.” Caterpillar’s stock price has risen more than 150% over the past 12 months.
◇SOXX put option expiration extended to March…strike price in the $400 range
He maintained his bearish bet on the semiconductor ETF SOXX while adjusting the terms. According to Business Insider, he extended the expiration date from January 2027 to March 2027 and raised the strike price from the low to mid-300s to the low to mid-400s. The Wall Street Journal explained that this bet is structured to generate a profit if SOXX falls by about one-third from its peak.
SOXX has risen nearly fourfold from its low last April (around $160) and is currently trading around the $640 level; it has also nearly doubled in value over the past six months. Burry pointed out that the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, which SOXX tracks, is at its widest historical deviation from its 200-day moving average (the first time since the dot-com bubble), stating, “SOXX itself is a pure form of index overvaluation.” Bloomberg reported that the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index surged 88% in the second quarter alone and 101% in the first half of the year, marking its highest-ever quarterly return.

◇Semiconductor and Infrastructure Stocks Fall Across the Board After Short Selling Disclosure
On the 1st, the day after Burry’s short-selling disclosure, most related stocks fell on the New York Stock Exchange. According to Bloomberg, Applied Materials, which had risen 150% this year, fell more than 11%, while the SOXX, which had doubled this year, dropped more than 6%. NVIDIA fell 3.3% during the session but recovered some of its losses. However, Bloomberg added that Tesla was an exception among the declining stocks.
Earlier, semiconductor equipment stocks had actually rallied immediately following investment announcements by SamsungElectronics and SK hynix. According to Business Insider, Burry was cynical about this rally, stating, “It merely pushed semiconductor equipment stocks—which were already in a parabolic (vertical) uptrend—even higher,” and added, “My friends in that industry are just shaking their heads and laughing.”
◇ Short Selling of NVIDIA and Palantir Is ‘Ongoing’
Last November, Burry first disclosed his bearish bets on NVIDIA and Palantir, which are set to run through 2027. Regarding NVIDIA, he believed its circular financing structure could lead to a collapse similar to the dot-com bubble, and regarding Palantir, he argued that its excessive reliance on government contracts could cause it to fall behind competitors. At the time, NVIDIA refuted the claims, stating there were no issues with its financial structure, and Palantir CEO Alex Karp harshly criticized Burry in a television interview.
According to the WSJ, NVIDIA’s stock price is currently about 5% lower than it was on the day Burry first disclosed his short position, while Palantir’s stock has fallen by about 40% over the same period, moving relatively closer to Burry’s predictions.
Burry’s latest bet is reigniting the debate over whether market optimism regarding AI infrastructure investment has peaked. The WSJ also pointed to several sources of industry anxiety, including the U.S. government’s intervention in the launch of Anthropic’s new model on national security grounds, and the fact that companies like Microsoft (MS) have begun offering low-cost options to reduce the burden of AI usage costs.