[Edaily Reporter Park Sun-Yeop ] Securities analysts have suggested that Homeplus’s decision to terminate its corporate rehabilitation proceedings could benefit competing large-scale supermarket chains such as E-MART Co., Ltd.(139480)and LOTTE SHOPPING CO., LTD.(023530). The analysis suggests that if disruptions to Homeplus’s operations materialize, demand for large-scale supermarkets could shift to competitors within the same sector, leading to increased sales and improved profitability.
Lee Jin-hyeop, an analyst at HANWHA INVESTMENT & SECURITIES, stated in a report on the 3rd, “The Seoul Bankruptcy Court has decided to terminate the corporate rehabilitation proceedings filed by Homeplus,” adding, “This decision is likely to benefit competitors such as E-MART Co., Ltd. and LOTTE SHOPPING CO., LTD.” HANWHA INVESTMENT & SECURITIES maintained a “positive” outlook on the retail sector.

It is understood that the Seoul Bankruptcy Court determined that the feasibility of the restructuring plan submitted by Homeplus was low. The explanation is that the decision reflected the fact that the company had failed in its merger and acquisition (M&A) efforts and was struggling to secure even the minimum amount of working capital.
However, this decision does not immediately lead to bankruptcy. While there remains a possibility that Homeplus could raise the DIP financing needed to continue operations during the reorganization process and file an immediate appeal against the court’s decision, a researcher at the firm analyzed that the likelihood of this happening is limited, as discussions between major shareholders and creditors regarding securing working capital have not progressed.
If bankruptcy proceedings move forward, all of Homeplus’s assets will be sold off to repay debts. Any remaining assets will then be distributed to shareholders. Ultimately, whether Homeplus can maintain normal operations has emerged as a key variable that will shape the competitive landscape within the retail sector.
HANWHA INVESTMENT & SECURITIES estimated that if a gap in Homeplus’s operations were to occur, the effect of competitors absorbing that revenue would be significant. Homeplus’s revenue in 2024, when it was operating normally, was approximately 7 trillion won. Excluding the approximately 1 trillion won in revenue from HanExpress, which has already been sold, annual revenue from its large-scale offline and online supermarket segments is estimated at around 6 trillion won.
The analysis suggests that if competitors were to capture 30% of this revenue, a sales increase of approximately 1.8 trillion won could result. In this scenario, operating profit could rise by about 300 to 400 billion won.
It was determined that the shift in demand is more likely to be directed toward other large-scale supermarkets rather than online or neighborhood retail channels. This is because, although large-scale supermarkets, corporate-owned supermarkets (SSMs), and online grocery services all focus on food products, consumers use them for different purposes.
The analyst also cited an analysis by the Korea Development Institute (KDI). According to the KDI, when per capita online spending increased by 1%, sales at hypermarkets decreased by 0.26%, while sales at SSMs and convenience stores increased by 0.22% and 0.32%, respectively. This serves as an example illustrating that, even if the expansion of online consumption partially erodes demand for hypermarkets, the purposes of consumption at hypermarkets and local retail channels differ.
In addition to spillover benefits in sales, increased buying power was also cited as a positive factor. If Homeplus’s influence wanes, the market share of E-MART Co., Ltd. and Lotte Mart within the hypermarket sector will inevitably grow. Consequently, their bargaining power with manufacturers is expected to increase, leading to improvements in gross profit margin (GPM).
The possibility of changes in the policy environment is also drawing attention. This is because the Homeplus restructuring issue has reaffirmed that large supermarkets are no longer the dominant retail forces they once were. In fact, the performance of E-MART Co., Ltd. and Lotte Mart has also deteriorated significantly compared to a decade ago.
In particular, the closure of large retail facilities could exacerbate infrastructure gaps in local communities, especially in rural areas. It has been pointed out that in regions with weak infrastructure, large supermarkets have served as more than just shopping spaces—they have functioned as essential community amenities—and that in areas with a high proportion of elderly residents, online shopping cannot fully replace this role.
The researcher stated, “Homeplus’s corporate rehabilitation has once again confirmed that large supermarkets are no longer dominant players,” adding, “Discussions on resolving discriminatory regulations, such as mandatory closing days, may now gain momentum.”
He went on to note that the Presidential Committee on Regulatory Rationalization recently mentioned the need to make regulations more realistic, and the Korea Development Institute (KDI) has also consistently highlighted the need for regulatory improvements, assessing that “change is already underway.”