Issues & Trends

All Eyes on SamsungElectronics’ Earnings… A Test of Rebound Amid Volatile Market Conditions [Weekly Stock Market Outlook]

KOSPI Down 3.84% for the Week… Foreign Investors Record 19.8 Trillion Won in Net Sales Market Recovers After Breaking Below the 8,000 Mark Amid Concerns Over Excessive AI Investment Focus on SamsungElectronics’ Preliminary Earnings and SK hynix’s ADR Listing

[Edaily Reporter Shin Ha-yeon ] The domestic stock market continued to experience significant volatility last week amid a global semiconductor correction and concerns over overheated investment in artificial intelligence (AI). The KOSPI briefly fell below the 8,000 mark, dropping more than 20% from its all-time high, but recovered to reclaim the 8,000 level toward the end of the week, buoyed by institutional buying. This week, the market is expected to assess whether a further rebound is possible as it digests semiconductor-related events, including SamsungElectronics’ preliminary second-quarter earnings and the listing of SK hynix’s American Depositary Receipts (ADRs).
According to MP Doctor on the 5th, the KOSPI closed at 8,088.34 on the 3rd, down 322.87 points (3.84%) from the previous week.
The KOSPI closing price is displayed on a screen in the Hana Bank trading room in Jung-gu, Seoul, on the 3rd, the day the index recovered the 8,000 mark. On that day, the KOSPI closed at 8,088.34, up 440.25 points (5.76%) from the previous session, while the KOSDAQ index closed at 868.41, up 1.69 points (0.19%) from the previous session. (Photo = Yonhap News)

The KOSPI, which had been fluctuating between 8,100 and 8,600 early last week, closed at 7,648.09 on the 2nd after plummeting 655.32 points (7.89%). This was driven by foreign media reports that Meta is considering entering the cloud business by utilizing surplus computing resources from its AI data centers, which fueled concerns about overinvestment in AI. News that Apple had begun chip purchase negotiations with Chinese memory manufacturers, including Changxin Memory Technology (CXMT), also dampened investor sentiment in the semiconductor sector.
Consequently, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 6.27%, and major domestic semiconductor stocks also plunged. On the 2nd, SamsungElectronics and SK hynix led the index lower, falling 9.06% and 14.57%, respectively. The KOSPI also slipped to 7,378.10 early in the session on the 3rd, but rebounded sharply by 6.38% to recover the 8,000 mark, driven by buying from institutions—led by pension funds.
In terms of supply and demand, foreign selling was particularly pronounced. Last week on the KOSPI market, foreign investors were net sellers for five consecutive trading days, offloading a total of 19.8374 trillion won. In contrast, retail investors and institutions were net buyers of 11.1217 trillion won and 8.1212 trillion won, respectively.
Foreign investors net sold SK hynix(000660)for 8.2824 trillion won and SamsungElectronics(005930)for 7.6880 trillion won. SKSQUARE(402340), ISUPETASYS(007660), and SamsungElectronics(1P)(005935) also ranked among the top net sellers. Conversely, they net bought SamsungElectroMechanics(009150), DB HiTek Co.,LTD(000990), LG Innotek(011070), HANMISemiconductorCO.,Ltd.(042700), and SAMSUNG BIOLOGICS(207940).
The market views this correction as largely the result of a simultaneous reversal of valuation pressures and supply-demand imbalances, rather than a deterioration in earnings fundamentals. Lee Jae-won, an analyst at Yuanta Securities Korea, said, “This correction is more characterized by a valuation downgrade driven by market noise than by a deterioration in fundamentals.”
However, volatility remains high. The KOSPI 200 Volatility Index (VKOSPI), known as the “Korean fear index,” stood at 89.29 at the close of trading on the 3rd. This implies volatility of approximately 90% on an annualized basis. In simple terms, this figure reflects the possibility of daily fluctuations in the range of ±5%. Factors cited for increasing index volatility include concentration in large-cap semiconductor stocks and the launch of single-stock leveraged products.
The market’s first key event this week is SamsungElectronics’ preliminary second-quarter earnings. SamsungElectronics is scheduled to announce its preliminary second-quarter earnings on the 7th. The market believes that if SamsungElectronics’ earnings exceed consensus estimates, expectations for an improvement in the memory chip market will strengthen again, potentially serving as a catalyst for a recovery in semiconductor investment sentiment.
Na Jeong-hwan, an analyst at NH INVESTMENT & SECURITIES, said, “The primary catalyst to trigger an uptrend in the current market environment is SamsungElectronics’ preliminary earnings,” adding, “If SamsungElectronics’ operating profit is confirmed to significantly exceed consensus estimates, it would signal a strengthening memory market and could serve as a catalyst to shift selling sentiment toward holding and chasing the rally.”
The listing of SK hynix ADRs is another event worth watching. SK hynix is set to list its ADRs in the U.S. on the 10th. As this could expand accessibility for global investors, the key question is whether foreign investor sentiment will shift following the recent sharp decline.
However, some analysts note that further confirmation is needed for the rebound to become a sustained trend. Analyst Na pointed out, “For the upward trend to continue, we need to confirm the direction for the second half of the year through the earnings reports from TSMC and ASML in mid-July, as well as the capital expenditure (CAPEX) guidance from hyperscalers.”

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