AI Data Centers Provide New Momentum for Construction Stocks… “Buy on Corrections”
Shinhan Investment Securities Report
Construction Sector Falls 9% in a Month… Underperforms the KOSPI
Three Major Mega Projects to Expand Order Opportunities Starting in 2027
GS Engineering & Construction Corp: Stock to Watch in July… Nuclear Power Stocks Expected to Gain Momentum Starting in September
[E-Daily Reporter Park Sun-Yeop ] According to an analysis by securities firms, although the construction sector has undergone a short-term stock price correction, the outlook for new orders after 2027 is actually brightening. It is assessed that construction companies are facing an unprecedentedly abundant array of opportunities to secure orders, driven not only by the restructuring of the global energy plant market but also by the “Three Major Mega Projects” being promoted by the government and major conglomerates. In particular, investment in artificial intelligence (AI) data centers was cited as the key short-term driver of stock prices in the sector. Kim Sun-mi, an analyst at Shinhan Investment Securities, maintained her “Overweight” investment rating for the construction sector in a report released on the 10th. “While the full-scale award of contracts is expected to begin after 2027, the construction sector is facing abundant opportunities due to the global energy plant market and large-scale domestic investment decisions,” Kim noted, adding, “A buy strategy remains valid during sector corrections.” (Chart: Shinhan Investment Securities) Construction sector stock prices have recently been sluggish. According to Shinhan Investment Securities, from the 8th of last month to the 8th of this month, the construction sector fell 9.0%, underperforming the KOSPI by 5.9 percentage points. Factors weighing on the sector included prolonged labor negotiations, the possibility of interest rate hikes in the U.S. and South Korea, the tax controversy surrounding DL E&C CO., LTD. in Saudi Arabia, and a shift in investor demand toward the information technology (IT) sector. However, the sector rebounded slightly as expectations for expanded order intake revived following the announcement of the “Three Major Mega Projects for Korea’s Great Leap Forward” on the 29th of last month. The first key focus for the construction sector in July is second-quarter earnings. The second-quarter earnings of major construction companies are generally expected to meet or slightly exceed market expectations. While housing sales continue to decline due to the completion of pre-sale projects from 2021–2022, analysts note that profitability is continuing to improve following downward adjustments to the estimated cost ratio of the order backlog. In addition, factors such as an increase in won-denominated revenue from overseas operations due to a rising exchange rate, one-time cost settlements related to the domestic Shahin project, and expanded sales to affiliates at SamsungE&A were cited as variables. Interest is expected to focus more on the increased order opportunities than on the actual earnings. Analyst Kim noted that the construction sector is simultaneously facing: △ opportunities in nuclear power and liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects stemming from the realignment of the global energy market following the U.S.-Iran conflict; △ new construction investment driven by three major mega-projects; △ a recovery in the regional housing market following large-scale development projects; and △ the expansion of urban renewal projects. Among these, AI data centers were identified as a source of short-term stock price momentum. This is because they are large-scale projects being pursued with government support, and given their rapid commercialization and short construction periods, they are expected to make a significant contribution to earnings. According to the report, investment in AI data centers within the mega-projects is planned to total 18.4 gigawatts (GW), with 8.4 GW in Phase 1 and 10 GW in Phase 2. Construction costs are estimated to reach approximately 110 trillion to 150 trillion won, based on a cost of 6 to 8 billion won per megawatt (MW). By stock, GS Engineering & Construction Corp(006360)was highlighted as a stock to watch in July. The assessment is that GS Engineering & Construction Corp stands to benefit significantly, as the GS Holdings Group is involved across the entire value chain—including AI data center development and operation, cooling solutions, power supply, and construction. GS Engineering & Construction Corp has a track record of constructing 16 data centers since 2006 and is currently working on or pursuing 11 new projects. Analyst Kim explained, “GS Engineering & Construction Corp is expected to emerge from a period of financial stabilization through 2026, followed by a surge in new orders in 2027 and a period of rapid earnings growth in 2028.” There is a possibility that momentum for nuclear power-related stocks could resurface starting in September. Analysts suggest that investor sentiment could revive as developments such as securing a tenant for the U.S. Fermi Project, winning a nuclear power plant contract in Vietnam, and the enactment of the Special Act on Nuclear Power Plant Exports come to fruition. However, considering factors such as securing clients, financing, and energy price volatility, analysts believe that actual contract awards for construction companies on global energy infrastructure projects are likely to materialize only after 2027. Regarding the housing market, the report assessed that polarization between the Seoul metropolitan area and regional areas continues. The report explained that while demand indicators in the Seoul metropolitan area remain robust, recovery in regional areas is slow due to concerns over unsold units, project financing (PF) for projects yet to break ground, and population outflow. However, since government policies are likely to focus on demand-stimulating measures such as balanced regional growth, the regional housing market is projected to recover gradually. The analysis also noted that attention should be paid to building materials companies, such as cement and concrete manufacturers, as the volume of new construction projects increases.
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