[E-Daily Reporter Park Sun-Yeop ] Forecasts indicate that major securities firms will post earnings exceeding market expectations for the second quarter of this year, buoyed by a bull market. Analysts suggest that securities firms with a strong retail base will benefit the most, as the rise in the KOSPI and increased trading volume have boosted brokerage revenues, while customer deposits and margin balances have also grown.
In a report on the securities sector released on the 10th, Lim Hee-yeon, an analyst at Shinhan Investment Securities, stated, “Considering earnings, market conditions, and momentum, the current valuation is excessively undervalued,” and maintained an “Overweight” investment rating for the securities sector. Analyst Lim pointed out, “While record-breaking earnings are expected amid a stock market boom at an all-time high, the price-to-book ratio (PBR) remains stagnant at the level seen at the end of last year.”

According to Shinhan Investment Securities, the average daily trading volume of domestic stocks in the second quarter, including exchange-traded funds (ETFs), reached 118.1 trillion won, a 39.8% increase from the previous quarter. Customer deposits rose 10.3% to 121.6 trillion won, while margin balances increased 13.1% to 36.7 trillion won. Analysts note that the expansion in trading volume is leading to improved brokerage profits, and this momentum is translating into strong sales of financial products in the wealth management (WM) division.
Earnings for major securities firms are also expected to exceed market expectations. Estimated second-quarter net income attributable to controlling shareholders are as follows: MIRAE ASSET SECURITIES(006800) 1.7293 trillion won, KOREA INVESTMENT HOLDINGS(071050) 930.2 billion won, KIWOOM Securities(039490) 560.7 billion won, SamsungSecurities(016360) 513.8 billion won, and NH INVESTMENT & SECURITIES(005940) 485.0 billion won. Compared to consensus estimates, MIRAE ASSET SECURITIES is projected to exceed expectations by 30.1%, followed by KOREA INVESTMENT HOLDINGS at 18.5%, KIWOOM Securities at 14.8%, SamsungSecurities at 10.9%, and NH INVESTMENT & SECURITIES at 7.3%.
However, there are clear differences across business segments. While brokerage and wealth management (WM) are expected to benefit directly from the booming stock market, the investment banking (IB) segment is likely to continue its overall slump due to the absence of major initial public offerings (IPOs) and the aftermath of dual-listing regulations. In real estate finance, although the burden of provisions is easing, the contribution to earnings will vary by securities firm as large deals are concentrated among certain firms.
In the trading division as well, poor performance in bond management due to rising interest rates remains a burden. However, it was noted that valuation gains on held assets could offset bond valuation losses, and that performance will vary by company depending on individual factors such as valuation gains or losses on non-marketable investment assets and foreign exchange gains or losses.
On a stock-by-stock basis, MIRAE ASSET SECURITIES is expected to post solid results across all business segments, including its domestic and overseas affiliates. In particular, it is estimated that approximately 1.5 trillion won in gains related to SpaceX will be reflected in its earnings. For KOREA INVESTMENT HOLDINGS, valuation gains on assets held by affiliates were cited as a key variable, and the possibility of an imminent acquisition of an insurance company was also mentioned.
For NH INVESTMENT & SECURITIES, while a decline in valuation gains from trading and non-marketable investment assets due to rising interest rates is expected, the recent 400 billion won capital increase—which expanded its credit extension limit—was viewed positively. For SamsungSecurities, increased brokerage and asset management fees driven by retail and high-net-worth clients were cited as positive factors, while for KIWOOM Securities, improved commission and trading profits due to the bull market, along with expanded profits related to ETF liquidity provider (LP) activities, were highlighted as key drivers.
Analyst Lim stated, “While these profits may be perceived as tied to market conditions in the short term, in the medium to long term, they will accumulate as capital, serving as a driving force to solidify the business foundation and enhance structural profit-generating capacity,” and named KOREA INVESTMENT HOLDINGS and KIWOOM Securities as his top picks.