[E-Daily Marketin Hur Jieun Reporter] In the second half of this year, the credit market is expected to see mixed performance across different sectors, much like in the first half. Sectors such as shipbuilding, defense, and semiconductors—which have benefited from the restructuring of global supply chains and the economic boom—are projected to lead credit rating upgrades. In contrast, the petrochemical, construction, and secondary financial sectors appear unable to escape the quagmire of deteriorating earnings and asset quality.

Representative sectors that have seen their credit ratings rise include shipbuilding, defense, power equipment, and semiconductors. These sectors are demonstrating exceptional earnings growth, driven by favorable global business conditions and robust order backlogs. Companies such as SK hynix(000660), HYUNDAI ROTEM(064350), and POONGSAN CORPORATION(103140) saw their credit ratings upgraded by one notch each during the first-half regular evaluations, based on their solid profit-generating capabilities.

These sectors are expected to maintain stable creditworthiness or aim for further upgrades in the second half of the year, supported by robust Chonbang demand. NICEHoldings assessed four sectors—defense, shipbuilding, power equipment, and electrical cables—as “Positive” for the second half of this year. Seven sectors—memory semiconductors, oil refining, air transportation, automotive, maritime transportation, displays, and retail distribution—were rated “Stable.”

However, the memory semiconductor sector was rated “Stable” rather than “Positive” due to its high volatility. Lee Hyuk-jun, Head of the Corporate Ratings Division at NICEHoldings, explained, “We need to take sufficient time to review whether the memory semiconductor sector can be assigned the highest credit rating of ‘AAA,’” adding, “We have changed the credit rating outlook for the memory semiconductor sector from ‘Positive’ to ‘Stable.’”

In contrast, the outlook for the petrochemical, secondary battery, steel, and construction sectors—as well as the secondary financial sector, including savings banks and real estate trusts—is bleak. These sectors are bearing the full brunt of downward pressure in the credit market, having been hit hard by oversupply, a contraction in Chonbang industries, and the prolonged period of high interest rates.

The warning signs are particularly stark in the petrochemical sector. Leading petrochemical companies such as LGCHEM,LTD(051910), LOTTE CHEMICAL CORPORATION(011170), and Yeocheon NCC are facing peak downward pressure on their credit ratings amid unfavorable market conditions. Once a key driver of South Korean exports, the sector is now facing an emergency in defending its creditworthiness as sluggish global demand and shrinking margins persist. Additionally, the construction industry—still reeling from the fallout of real estate project financing (PF) risks—and the secondary financial sector, including savings banks, are unable to shake off their “negative” outlook as their asset quality continues to deteriorate.

Given the persistent uncertainty in the macroeconomic environment—including high interest rates and a strong won—analysts suggest that performance gaps may widen even within the sector, depending on the fundamentals of individual companies. An official from a credit rating agency stated, “The key variable in the credit market for the second half of the year will ultimately be the actual ability of liquidity-vulnerable companies to respond,” adding, “Within sectors where the recovery is slow, downward pressure on credit ratings may be concentrated on companies that lack their own financial buffers.”