[Edaily Reporter Park Sun-Yeop ] Analysts say the KOSPI is at a critical crossroads regarding whether it will stabilize above the 8,200 level. If the index breaks above the 8,200 level with a strong rebound backed by heavy trading volume, it could quickly reach the 10,000 mark; however, if it fails to break through, the market could enter a final downtrend that pushes it below the 7,000 level. Nevertheless, analysts assess that the medium-term trend remains upward, as the positive momentum in the economy and corporate earnings is expected to continue regardless of the path taken.
Lee Kyung-min, an analyst at DaishinSecurities, stated in a report on the 13th, “Since investor sentiment and supply-demand uncertainties triggered the KOSPI’s sharp decline, whether the index breaks through and stabilizes above the 8,200 level is crucial in the short term,” adding, “While short-term fluctuations may be mixed, the long-term trend is upward.”

The KOSPI closed at 7,475.94 last week, down 7.57%. Investor sentiment deteriorated sharply as profit-taking selling, particularly in semiconductor stocks, surged following SamsungElectronics’ preliminary earnings announcement, while international oil prices and U.S. Treasury yields rose due to military clashes between the U.S. and Iran. Volatility also increased to the point where circuit breakers and sell-side cars were triggered in quick succession.
In contrast to global stock markets, which remained relatively resilient despite Middle East risks and concerns over the semiconductor industry’s outlook, the decline in the domestic market was particularly pronounced. Analysts attribute this to a concentration of supply-and-demand shocks—including negative news related to the semiconductor sector and the liquidation of leveraged products—at a time when semiconductor stocks had grown so influential that they accounted for more than 60% of the KOSPI’s market capitalization during the previous bull market.
This analyst interpreted the recent sharp decline in semiconductor stocks as the result of a confluence of factors: skepticism regarding the artificial intelligence (AI) industry narrative, valuation normalization, and supply-demand shocks caused by the liquidation of leveraged products—rather than a deterioration in fundamentals. The analyst assessed that the trend of earnings improvement remains intact, noting that SamsungElectronics’ preliminary second-quarter earnings exceeded market expectations, and earnings forecasts for both the semiconductor and non-semiconductor sectors are being revised upward.
In fact, the KOSPI’s 12-month forward earnings per share (EPS) rose from 1,015 points at the end of May to 1,175 points on the 10th of this month. Conversely, due to the sharp drop in stock prices, the 12-month forward price-to-earnings ratio (P/E ratio) fell to 6.36 times. This represents a historically undervalued range on par with the lows seen during the global financial crisis. Calculations suggest that if the forward P/E ratio recovers to just 7 times, the KOSPI could surpass the 8,200 mark, and at 8.6 times, it could reach the 10,000 level.
U.S. inflation data scheduled for release this week was also cited as a key factor that could determine the stock market’s direction. The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June, to be released on the 14th, is expected to decline by 3.8% year-over-year and 0.1% month-over-month. If the slowdown in inflation is confirmed, concerns over further U.S. interest rate hikes are expected to ease, leading to a downward stabilization of Treasury yields and the dollar, which could provide momentum for a rebound in the domestic stock market.
Furthermore, as the second-quarter earnings season gets into full swing, the price attractiveness of domestic stocks—which has increased during the sharp decline—is expected to come into focus. Earnings announcements and conference calls from major tech companies, including SamsungElectronics(005930)and SK hynix(000660), may also help alleviate uncertainty surrounding AI investments and the semiconductor industry outlook.
However, the analyst advised that investors should remain cautious of a further correction if trading volume fails to increase as the index approaches the 8,200 level or if negative candlesticks reappear. In such a scenario, the analyst explained that it cannot be ruled out that the KOSPI could temporarily dip below the 7,000 level, test support at the 6,500 level, and then resume its upward trend.
The analyst stated, “When the forward P/E ratio is 7x or lower, the actual benefit from selling is minimal,” and proposed a strategy of increasing exposure by capitalizing on volatility below the 8,000-point level on the KOSPI. The advice is to make staggered purchases, focusing on existing leading stocks—such as those in semiconductors, secondary batteries, power equipment, and defense—that have experienced sharp short-term declines but have entered undervalued territory relative to their earnings.