[Edaily Reporter Park Sun-Yeop ] Analysts suggest that the recent sharp correction in Korean semiconductor stocks may be a temporary pause following a steep rally, rather than a sign that the bull market has ended. Since the conditions for a global stock market rally remain intact, they advise investors to look for buying opportunities when SamsungElectronics(005930)and SK hynix(000660)form a bottom above their 30-week moving averages and then rebound.
In a report released on the 21st, Kang Hyun-ki, an analyst at DB Securities, likened the current stock market to a “hydration break” in a soccer match—a brief pause to allow players to rehydrate. He assessed, “While the conditions for a global stock market rally are still in place, the steep rise that continued until recently is causing some friction.”

Kang identified the relationship between the nominal gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate and the benchmark interest rate as the key variable determining the stock market’s trend. He explained that when the nominal GDP growth rate—which represents the average rate of return on investment—exceeds the benchmark interest rate (the cost of investment), the stock market rally is supported; conversely, when it falls below the benchmark interest rate, downward pressure increases.
Currently, the U.S. nominal GDP growth rate stands at 6.1% year-over-year, exceeding the benchmark interest rate of 3.75%. Analyst Kang noted, “Both the dot-com bubble and the housing market bubble in the past ended after the nominal GDP growth rate fell below the benchmark interest rate,” adding, “Based on the current consensus, we should be considering the point at which these two indicators converge—which is expected to be sometime after mid-2027.”
However, he believes that the short-term overheating in the South Korean stock market—particularly among semiconductor stocks—needs to be resolved. According to U.S. investor Stan Weinstein’s “Four-Stage Theory of Stock Prices,” market-leading stocks generally move along the 30-week moving average; if stock prices stray too far from this moving average, a natural correction may occur. He assesses that SamsungElectronics and SK hynix currently fit this scenario.
Uncertainty surrounding the artificial intelligence (AI) industry is another factor that could increase volatility in semiconductor stocks. If Chinese AI companies begin supplying high-performance, low-cost services, the position of U.S. AI companies could be undermined. On the other hand, competition between U.S. and Chinese AI companies could escalate into a race for AI infrastructure investment between the two countries, meaning that both bullish and bearish factors could simultaneously affect semiconductor stocks.
Analyst Kang emphasized the need to confirm whether semiconductor stocks are forming a bottom while holding above their 30-week moving average. He explained that if stock prices rebound above the moving average following a correction, this should be viewed as a pause in an ongoing uptrend, presenting an opportunity to buy back into the market.
He said, “Investors can look for buying opportunities when Korean semiconductor stocks form a bottom above their own 30-week moving average and then rebound,” adding, “However, if leading stocks fall below the 30-week moving average, investors should manage risk by considering the possibility that the uptrend could be compromised.”