[Edaily Reporter JAEMIN SONG ] Estimates suggest that next year, there will be virtually no difference in HBM demand between NVIDIA and Google’s AI accelerators in the global High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) market. This implies that the HBM market, which has been dominated by NVIDIA, could undergo a major shift starting next year. If the HBM market reorganizes around the two major players—NVIDIA and Google—this lends credence to the prediction that SamsungElectronics could rise to the top of the HBM market next year.

According to semiconductor industry data obtained by Edaily on the 4th, demand for HBM to be incorporated into AI graphics processing units (GPUs) and application-specific integrated circuits (ASICs) next year is estimated to reach approximately 48.6 billion Gb (gigabits). Converted to gigabytes (GB), this is a massive volume—enough to simultaneously store approximately 250 million 2-hour 4K high-definition movies. Of this total, NVIDIA is expected to account for 37.3% with approximately 18.1 billion Gb, while Google is projected to hold a 36.0% share with about 17.5 billion Gb. The gap between the two companies is only about 600 million Gb, or 1.3 percentage points in market share.

Until now, the HBM market has been driven by NVIDIA’s product release schedule and supply chain, as the company has dominated the AI accelerator market. However, as Google rapidly scales up its in-house Tensor Processing Units (TPUs), the HBM demand landscape is being reshaped with NVIDIA GPUs and Google TPUs as the two main pillars. An industry official stated, “This year alone, HBM demand was virtually entirely concentrated on NVIDIA, but starting next year, we’re heading into a period of upheaval.”

Looking at Google’s HBM demand for next year by product, the TPU v8i, designed by MediaTek, accounts for the largest share at approximately 9.1 billion Gb. The TPU v8t, designed by Broadcom, also amounts to about 6.2 billion Gb. Demand for the TPU v7p and v9 is estimated at approximately 300 million Gb and 1.8 billion Gb, respectively. It is projected that the TPU v8i and v8t will be equipped with 12-layer HBM3E, while the next-generation TPU v9 will feature 12-layer HBM4E. Observers predict that Google will expand its demand from HBM3E to HBM4E alongside the transition to the next generation of TPUs.

Google’s rapid rise also bolsters the outlook for SamsungElectronics’ expanding HBM market share. In a recent client note, UBS projected that SamsungElectronics will take the top spot next year, accounting for 41% of total HBM bit shipments. It forecast that SK hynix’s share would drop from 48% this year to 39% next year, while Micron would account for 20%. While UBS had expected as recently as last May that SamsungElectronics would reach parity with SK hynix next year, it has now brought forward the timeline for SamsungElectronics’ overtaking to next year.

Looking solely at NVIDIA’s supply chain at present, SK hynix continues to hold the lead. Industry estimates suggest that SK hynix accounts for 60–70% of the initial HBM4 shipment for NVIDIA’s Rubin, while SamsungElectronics accounts for 25–30%. However, analysts note that SamsungElectronics’ strong position to become the top HBM supplier next year reflects the expansion of non-NVIDIA orders, such as those from Google TPUs and AMD.

In fact, SamsungElectronics, SK hynix, and Micron are all being mentioned as potential HBM suppliers for Google’s major TPU products next year. Although specific allocation ratios by vendor have not been confirmed, SamsungElectronics has relatively greater room to expand its volume because its supply chain is more diversified compared to NVIDIA’s. In particular, if Google’s HBM demand grows to a scale comparable to NVIDIA’s, Google’s allocation of volumes among suppliers could reshuffle the overall market rankings.

SamsungElectronics is maintaining its position as the top DRAM manufacturer, bolstered by its strength in general-purpose DRAM. According to Counterpoint Research, SamsungElectronics retained the top spot in the global DRAM market in the second quarter of this year, accounting for 39% of the market by revenue.

During a recent conference call, SamsungElectronics stated, “We expect HBM4 revenue in the third quarter of this year to more than triple compared to the previous quarter,” adding, “For the second half of the year, HBM4 revenue is expected to comfortably exceed 60% of total HBM revenue.” The company emphasized, “We expect to secure an HBM market share equivalent to our overall DRAM market share during the second half of the year, thereby achieving a balanced DRAM business portfolio.”

However, some observers note that since all three memory companies are candidates to supply HBM for Google’s TPUs, it is too early to conclude that increased demand will immediately translate into orders for SamsungElectronics.

Lee Jong-hwan, a professor in the Department of System Semiconductor Engineering at Sangmyung University, said, “If Google’s demand for HBM increases and SamsungElectronics supplies it to Google, there is potential for market share expansion,” adding, “If SamsungElectronics leverages the strengths of its ‘one-stop solution’—which encompasses foundry and back-end packaging—it could gain an advantage in terms of volume.”