[New York = E-Daily Seong Joowon Correspondent] Elon Musk’s space company, SpaceX, is trading down by more than 9% on the New York Stock Exchange on the 5th (local time), despite reporting revenue that exceeded market expectations in its first quarterly earnings report since going public. This is the result of massive capital expenditures poured into artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure, which has actually fueled investor anxiety. Compounded by the scheduled expiration of a large block of insider stock lock-up on the 6th, SpaceX’s stock price is facing its biggest test just two months after its IPO.

According to Bloomberg and Reuters, SpaceX’s stock price fell as much as 12% from the previous trading day before recovering somewhat to trade down around 9% as of 10:45 a.m. Bloomberg reported that the rally, which had boosted the company’s market capitalization by more than $250 billion (approximately 356.75 trillion won) over the previous two days, has largely been erased by this correction.

Earnings Beat Expectations, but AI Investment Burden Weighs on the Stock

The previous day, SpaceX announced in its first earnings report since going public that it had recorded second-quarter revenue of $7.8 billion. This exceeded market expectations of $6.82 billion and represented a 92% increase year-over-year. The net loss was $541 million, a significant narrowing from the market’s expected $2.12 billion.
The problem was capital expenditures. The Financial Times (FT) reported that SpaceX’s second-quarter capital expenditures in the AI sector reached “nearly $16 billion,” double the amount from the previous quarter.
SpaceX stated that this spending trend is expected to continue for at least the next two quarters. Chief Financial Officer (CFO) Brett Johnson sought to allay concerns during the earnings call, stating, “The way we are deploying capital in the AI computing segment is yielding a payback period of less than one year.” CFO Johnson also revealed that the company had secured an additional $6.7 billion in cloud computing contracts since the end of the second quarter and is aiming to reach $100 billion in annual recurring revenue (ARR) by the end of the year.
CEO Musk announced during the earnings call that SpaceX’s computing capacity would be expanded from 2 gigawatts (GW) at the end of this year to a level closer to 10 GW by the end of 2027, rather than 5 GW. He also announced that the company will use only NVIDIA hardware for future infrastructure expansion. Musk expressed confidence by moving up the target date for reaching $1 trillion in revenue from 2031 to 2030.
SpaceX’s AI business revenue reached $2.56 billion, more than tripling compared to both the previous quarter and the same period last year.

“Aggressive but not unrealistic” vs. “Margin pressure inevitable”

Wall Street’s reactions were mixed. Melissa Otto, Global Head of Visible Alpha Research at S&P Global, said, “What the investment community didn’t welcome as much was the scale of capital expenditures in the AI sector,” adding, “It’s ambitious.” Deck Mularkey, Managing Director at SLC Management, pointed out that SpaceX is placing more emphasis on its data center leasing and cloud business than on its proprietary AI models, warning, “If the cloud business becomes the main focus, margins will inevitably be constrained.”
In contrast, David Wagner, Portfolio Manager at Aptus Capital Advisors, commented, “Musk has always surprised investors when it comes to execution, and there have been instances where he missed deadlines, as with Tesla,” but added, “While the numbers themselves are aggressive, they are not unrealistic. The necessary elements are in place, and flawless execution is key.”
Drew Cuffs, portfolio manager at Polan Capital, said, “The relationship between capital expenditures and revenue is unsustainable, so either spending must decrease or revenue must skyrocket,” adding, “At this point, confidence in Musk’s vision, engineering leadership, and execution capabilities is what separates the bulls from the bears.”
Josh Gilbert, chief analyst at eToro, pointed out, “This follows the trend seen across Big Tech during this earnings season, where investors are beginning to question unlimited spending and demand visible returns,” adding, “SpaceX faces an even tougher test, given that it is asking shareholders to foot the bill for the construction of an orbital data center.” Caroline DePalmas, an analyst at ActiveTrade, predicted, “With capital expenditures remaining high and investment enthusiasm cooling, the stock price could continue to face pressure ahead of the lock-up expiration.”
Amid this, a significant portion of SpaceX’s AI revenue comes from leasing data center capacity to competing AI companies such as Anthropic and Google, leading to the assessment that it is closely tied to the demand for computing infrastructure across the AI industry as a whole.

Lock-up Expiration on the 6th Totaling 144 Trillion Won… “Unprecedented Volume”

The next market variable is the expiration of the

lock-up

period on insider shares, scheduled for

the 6th

. According to Bloomberg, this release will make up to 911.5 million shares—worth $101 billion (approximately 143.824 trillion won)—available for trading. This is more than double the approximately 639 million shares currently in circulation. SpaceX opted for a staggered release structure across nine phases instead of the traditional 180-day single lock-up period, and this marks the first phase.
Peter Singlehurst, who leads the private equity team at Bailey Gipford, said, “I’ve never seen a lock-up release of this scale or in this manner,” adding, “We are in uncharted territory.” He is an early investor who has been investing in SpaceX since 2018.
Short positions are also substantial. Citing data provider S3 Partners, Bloomberg reported that, based on the closing price on the 4th, 35% of the free-float shares are currently shorted. Bloomberg noted that investors have already realized $5.3 billion in paper gains from these short bets.
Wagner of Aptus Capital said, “Many investors are reluctant to buy through December due to concerns about fundamentals and the burden of locked-up shares,” adding, “We share that view.”

AI Investment: Focus on the Turning Point for Profitability

SpaceX’s stock price has shown extreme volatility just two months after its initial public offering (IPO) in June, when it debuted at $135 per share, briefly soared to $225, and has recently fallen back to the low to mid-$100 range. Following the first lock-up release on the 6th, a large-scale second release is scheduled for December, which will increase the number of shares available for trading to 5.33 billion, so volatility is expected to continue for the time being. In addition, the 14th launch of the Starship rocket—considered the cornerstone of the orbital data center business—is scheduled for later this month, and the market is watching this as a potential catalyst for the stock’s next move.
Ultimately, the key question is how quickly SpaceX can convert its trillions-won AI investments into actual profits. Whether the “payback period of less than one year” emphasized by CFO Johnson becomes a reality is expected to be the market’s top concern leading up to the second lock-up release in December.