[Edaily Reporter Kwon Oh Seok ] With U.S. long-term Treasury yields on the rise again, investors’ attention is focused on the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July—to be released on the night of the 12th (KST)— SamsungElectronics(005930), and SK hynix(000660), the leading domestic semiconductor stocks.

Previously, on the 31st of last month, the yield on 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds rose to 5.28% annually, hitting its highest level in about 19 years—since July 2007—and it climbed back to 5.28% annually during trading the previous day. The yield on 10-year Treasury bonds also surpassed 4.74%.
Rising U.S. Treasury yields trigger a “money move” (capital flight) in global capital markets, which has a negative impact on the domestic stock market. When the U.S. dollar—a safe-haven asset—offers high yields, global capital that had been parked in Shinhung capital markets has no choice but to flow back to the U.S. Consequently, a flood of sell orders could hit Shinhung capital markets, potentially leading to a simultaneous outflow of foreign capital from the domestic stock market and a weakening of the won.
Next, the market is closely watching the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI), which is set to be released at 9:30 p.m. today. If the CPI comes in line with or below market expectations, concerns about a resurgence of inflation will ease, strengthening the outlook for a September interest rate cut. If inflation comes in more stable than expected, concerns over prolonged Fed tightening would ease, potentially reducing upward pressure on Treasury yields and the dollar. In this scenario, risk appetite would recover, particularly for U.S. tech and semiconductor stocks, and large-cap semiconductor stocks in the domestic market are likely to benefit as well.
In the domestic stock market, a relief rally is expected for the top two semiconductor companies. In particular, SK hynix, which focuses on HBM (High-Bandwidth Memory), could show relatively strong stock price momentum in tandem with the revival of AI investment sentiment among U.S. Big Tech firms, while SamsungElectronics is expected to benefit from the re-inflow of foreign passive funds following exchange rate stabilization.
Conversely, if the CPI comes in above market expectations, concerns that the Fed’s interest rate cut timeline could be pushed back will grow, potentially putting upward pressure on long-term interest rates and the dollar exchange rate once again. In this scenario, not only could U.S. tech and semiconductor stocks experience a correction, but there is also a high likelihood that the impact will spill over into the domestic market.
Ultimately, if interest rates stabilize quickly, the impact on the AI investment cycle is expected to be limited. However, should high interest rates persist for an extended period, Big Tech companies may simultaneously scale back capital expenditures (CapEx) and face an outflow of foreign capital; therefore, it is necessary to closely monitor future trends in U.S. Treasury yields and the reaction of U.S. semiconductor stocks.