[Edaily Reporter Bang Sung Hoon ] A series of elections are scheduled for the second half of this year in countries currently at war, including the United States, Russia, and Israel. As voter dissatisfaction mounts due to rising energy prices, “wartime leaders” are on high alert over their stagnant approval ratings. The election results, which will force these nations to focus on domestic issues, are also intertwined with the course of the wars in Iran and Ukraine.

According to the Nikkei newspaper on the 13th, elections will be held in quick succession: the Russian State Duma election on the 20th of next month, the Israeli general election on October 27, and the U.S. midterm elections on November 3. The Brazilian presidential election on October 4 and Taiwan’s local elections on November 28 are also scheduled.

◇ 60% of Americans Say “Gas Prices Won’t Drop”… Trump’s Approval Rating Hits Lowest Point of Second Term
Since gasoline prices skyrocketed following his launch of attacks on Iran in late February, U.S. President Donald Trump has repeatedly emphasized that tensions would ease, stating, “Gas prices will plummet, and the war will end soon.” This was a move aimed at addressing voters’ concerns about rising living costs. However, the war itself has failed to gain traction, with public support for the attacks on Iran standing at just 30%.

As a result, according to RealClearPolitics—which averages various polls—President Trump’s approval rating has plummeted to 39%. This is the lowest level of his second term. A Reuters/Ipsos poll also showed his approval rating falling from 42% in January to 37% last month. In a poll conducted last month by The Washington Post (WP) and others, 60% of respondents said they “do not believe gasoline prices will return to normal levels through negotiations between the U.S. and Iran.” In the U.S., where daily life is difficult without a car, rising gas prices immediately backfire on the ruling Republican Party.

There is a precedent from the 2002 midterm elections, when then-President George W. Bush, in the wake of the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, appealed for national unity by prioritizing the “war on terror,” leading the Republican Party to gain seats. This was a case that overturned the conventional wisdom that the ruling party struggles in midterm elections. However, the current U.S., which continues to clash with Iran, is widely seen as far from being united. Although the Republicans currently hold the presidency and majorities in both the Senate and the House of Representatives, U.S. election analysis sites predict a close race between the two major parties in both chambers.

◇Netanyahu Trails by One Seat… Putin’s Approval Rating Plummets 10 Percentage Points
Israel will hold general elections (120 seats) this coming October. This will be the first election since the surprise attack by the Palestinian militant group Hamas in 2023. There is speculation that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu—who has maintained a hardline stance toward Iran and others—may step down if the ruling coalition loses its majority.

According to a poll conducted late last month by the local daily *Mariv*, the centrist opposition party Yashar is projected to win 23 seats, leading Prime Minister Netanyahu’s right-wing Likud party (22 seats) by one seat. Likud’s projected seat count has dropped by five from 27 seats in January of this year. There are also predictions that Yashar will form a coalition government with other opposition parties, leading to its leader, former Chief of Staff Gadi Eizenkot, becoming prime minister. Eizenkot is well-regarded on security policy, an issue of high public concern.

Prime Minister Netanyahu is facing criticism for failing to prevent Hamas’s surprise attack, in addition to standing trial on corruption charges. Udi Sommer, director of the Barak Leadership Center at Tel Aviv University, analyzed that “he is losing support even among some on the right.” However, if efforts to form a coalition government stall, there remains the possibility that Prime Minister Netanyahu could remain in office while the country holds repeated elections.

Russia, currently at war with Ukraine, will hold its first State Duma election next month since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. While a victory for the ruling “United Russia” party is considered certain due to the crackdown on dissidents, the number of seats it secures will serve as a barometer for the stability of the regime.

According to the state-run All-Russian Public Opinion Research Center, President Vladimir Putin’s approval rating last month stood at 65%, down 10 percentage points from the beginning of this year. This is the lowest figure since the invasion began. Rising gasoline prices and mobile communications regulations appear to have contributed to this decline. In a survey conducted last month by the independent research organization Levada Center, 62% of respondents said peace negotiations should begin.

◇Lula Shaken by Brazil’s Inflation… Taiwan Sees Prelude to Presidential Election
In Brazil, ahead of the October presidential election, inflation exceeding the central bank’s upper target range is weighing heavily on households and casting a shadow over the administration’s standing. President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s approval rating stands at 48%, in a tight race with those opposed to him. Deborah (40), a resident of São Paulo, lamented, “Our incomes can’t keep up with the pace at which food prices and utility bills are rising.”

Relations with the United States are also a key issue. The Trump administration has been pressuring left-wing President Lula—who is seeking a fourth term—by imposing high tariffs on Brazil. Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro and a rival candidate, is seeking to rally conservative voters with the backing of President Trump.

In addition, Taiwan will hold local elections in November. These are seen as a prelude to the 2028 presidential election. In the 2022 elections, the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) campaigned on a platform of standing up to China’s military pressure but suffered a major defeat at the hands of the main opposition party, the Kuomintang (KMT). This time, it has adopted a strategy focused on measures to curb soaring housing prices and support for childcare.

The Nikkei predicted that as voter dissatisfaction keeps leaders in various countries tied up with domestic issues, these elections will also serve as variables in the search for a way out of the war.