[Edaily Reporter Kim Kyung-eun ] While market attention is focused on the large-scale shareholder return policies announced by SamsungElectronics(005930)and SK hynix(000660), analysts suggest it is unlikely that these measures will drive a sharp rebound in stock prices. Given that the market has already priced in significant expectations for shareholder returns, the assessment is that these policies will likely serve merely to offset weakened buying momentum and provide support for stock prices, rather than delivering a “surprise.”

Son In-jun, an analyst at EUGENE INVESTMENT & SECURITIES, made these remarks in an interview with Edaily on the 14th, stating, “A V-shaped rebound for semiconductor stocks will be difficult.”

Shareholder returns have recently become one of the key factors influencing the stock prices of SamsungElectronics and SK hynix. As their stock prices have entered an undervalued range relative to the memory market conditions, market expectations are growing for additional shareholder return policies from both companies, such as special dividends and share buybacks. SamsungElectronics and SK hynix plan to allocate 50% of their free cash flow (FCF) to shareholder returns.

Based on free cash flow (FCF), Analyst Son noted, “Expectations have formed for shareholder returns of approximately 100 trillion won for SK hynix and 130 trillion to 140 trillion won or more for SamsungElectronics,” but he assessed that “it will not be easy to significantly exceed these figures.” He went on to emphasize, “I believe it is unlikely that share prices will surge sharply due to a surprise announcement regarding shareholder returns.”

He assessed that for semiconductor stocks to rebound rapidly, the funding environment—including stable interest rates—must improve. This is because, as Big Tech’s FCF shrinks and interest rates rise, the burden of raising funds for large-scale artificial intelligence (AI) investments has increased.

Researcher Son explained, “While there are no issues between memory buyers and sellers, market concerns have shifted to the relationship between memory buyers and their creditors,” adding, “This is why, no matter how much Big Tech expands its capital expenditures (CapEx), the market does not view it as positively as before.”

He added, “Stabilizing interest rates is essential to alleviating these concerns, but the direction of interest rates is difficult for the market to predict,” noting, “For this reason, a sharp rebound in semiconductor stocks is unlikely, and I believe a gradual recovery is the best-case scenario.”

However, he maintained an optimistic outlook on the memory market itself. He estimated that DRAM volumes would not increase until the second half of 2028, at which point prices would begin a gradual decline. While NAND is likely to undergo a correction starting in late 2027, he predicted that this too is unlikely to lead to a sharp drop in prices.

He said, “The semiconductor peak is still a long way off,” adding, “Judging by the current sentiment, there is a significant possibility that the memory shortage will continue until 2030.”

Since early May, Analyst Son has maintained his investment rating for SamsungElectronics and SK hynix at the highest level, “Strong Buy.” He also suggested that if stock prices continue their gradual upward trend, they could surpass their previous all-time highs in the second quarter of next year.

“It’s not to say they won’t reach new highs, but rather that it’s unlikely they’ll rise as sharply as they did in May and June, when share prices surged by about 100%,” he explained. “Looking at a six-month to one-year timeframe, reaching those highs is entirely possible,” he predicted. He added, “Since semiconductors remain an excellent investment opportunity, it’s appropriate to take a long-term approach.”