[Edaily Reporter Kwon Oh Seok ] The domestic stock market is expected to rebound this week, buoyed by subsiding doubts regarding demand for AI (artificial intelligence) and expectations that interest rate pressures may ease. However, some observers point out that profit-taking and geopolitical risks stemming from the Middle East—depending on the outcome of U.S.-Iran negotiations—could trigger short-term volatility.

According to MP Doctor on the 17th, the KOSPI closed at 6,977.94 last week, up 164.60 points (2.42%) from the previous trading day.
Starting the week around the 6,200 level, the KOSPI showed a slightly bullish trend before gaining momentum midway through the week and entering a full-fledged recovery. After rising for five consecutive trading days, the index reclaimed the 7,000 mark intraday on the 14th—the final trading day—and settled around the 6,900 level.
During this period, retail investors showed signs of actively taking profits, with net sales totaling 7.0846 trillion won on the KOSPI. In contrast, foreign investors made net purchases of 6.547 trillion won, and institutional investors made net purchases of 771.9 billion won.
Last week, the stock market staged a strong rebound as robust earnings from global AI infrastructure companies coincided with strong South Korean export performance. CoreWeave, an AI cloud provider, announced strong second-quarter revenue and an upward revision to its annual CapEx (capital expenditure) forecast, while Super Micro Computer, an AI server manufacturer, also demonstrated the sustainability of global AI investment by presenting an order backlog and revenue outlook that exceeded market expectations.
Analysts note that this has significantly alleviated concerns over an “AI bubble,” which had previously been a stumbling block for domestic semiconductor stock prices. In particular, with South Korea’s exports from August 1 to 10 reaching a record high of $21.3 billion, semiconductor exports surged 155.4% year-over-year, underpinning this earnings momentum. Additionally, expectations for large-scale shareholder return policies from Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix in the third quarter have further boosted investor sentiment.
Furthermore, following a decline of 23,000 in U.S. nonfarm payrolls in July, both the CPI (Consumer Price Index) and PPI (Producer Price Index) have shown an overall slowdown, reducing the likelihood of a rate hike by the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed). Market sentiment is increasingly leaning toward expectations of a rate cut at the September FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting. If U.S. interest rates rise, global investment capital could flow out of emerging markets, such as South Korea, and shift toward the United States.
With no major events scheduled this week—such as CPI releases or earnings reports from big tech companies—the securities industry views geopolitical risks stemming from the Middle East, including the progress of negotiations between the U.S. and Iran, as potential sources of short-term volatility.
Lee Kyung-min, an analyst at Daishin Securities, stated, “As the supply-demand imbalance that had been concentrated in the semiconductor sector eases and sector rotation continues, the upward trend is expected to persist.” He added, “In the short term, the key will be whether the KOSPI can stabilize in the 6,500–6,800 range. "If it successfully stabilizes there, the index could initially attempt to recover to the 8,500 level, which corresponds to a 12-month forward P/E ratio of 7," he analyzed.
The analyst elaborated, “The ‘VKOSPI’ (KOSPI 200 Volatility Index), often referred to as the fear index, fell to 54.96 after reaching 96.94 on June 29. As volatility is subsiding, the likelihood that the conflict between the U.S. and Iran will escalate into a shock severe enough to derail the stock market’s trend is currently limited.”
NH Investment & Securities projected a weekly trading range of 6,200 to 7,200. Na Jeong-hwan, an analyst at NH Investment & Securities, explained, “We are in a phase where doubts about downstream AI demand are subsiding,” adding, “Strong earnings reports from U.S. AI data center-related stocks and neo-cloud companies have alleviated concerns about downstream AI demand itself. This is a factor supporting the sustainability of memory semiconductor earnings.”
He continued, “Since earnings reports for most major AI-related stocks have largely been released, NVIDIA’s earnings report on the 27th will serve as the final confirmation of downstream demand,” adding, “We believe the upward trend, led by semiconductors, will continue as confidence is restored. “A strategy of reducing IT exposure and reallocating to sectors with strong earnings that have been oversold will be a valid choice once the KOSPI has re-priced these earnings,” he advised.