[Edaily Reporter Han Kwangbeom ] SamsungElectronics(005930)is expected to reclaim the top spot globally, outpacing its competitors despite a sharp downturn in the global smartphone market.
According to global market research firm Counterpoint Research on the 24th, SamsungElectronics is projected to increase its shipments by approximately 0.8% and claim the top market share, despite adverse conditions such as rising component costs and an economic downturn, which are expected to cause global smartphone shipments to decline by 14.3% year-over-year.
A broad regional business base, a deep supply chain, and relative stability in the supply of memory and semiconductors are the factors underpinning this resilience. Yang Wang, Senior Research Analyst at Counterpoint Research, noted that SamsungElectronics is securing supply flexibility based on its in-house component procurement capabilities, broad product portfolio, and robust distribution network. He predicted that the company will maintain its advantageous position relative to competitors—even if it means sacrificing some profitability—to defend its volume market share.
The market downturn this year is primarily attributed to rising component costs (BOM), driven by higher prices for mobile memory and chipsets, as well as weakening consumer purchasing power. In particular, while the premium segment remains resilient, the mass-market (entry-level) segment has been hit hard, leading to deepening market polarization.
The lower the price point, the less capacity there is to absorb rising costs, leading to a greater impact on shipment volumes. With channel inventory built up during the first half of this year being depleted and costs rising, production orders for the second half are also expected to decline significantly. The overall market is projected to face continued challenges, with shipments expected to decline by an additional 1.4% in 2027.
Apple, another major player in the market, is expected to fare better than the overall market average, though the outlook remains cautious. Apple’s shipments are projected to decline by approximately 2.1% this year before rebounding to grow by about 2.8% in 2027.
While robust demand for the iPhone 17 series, its premium positioning, and priority access to key components are cited as strengths, the possibility of price increases for the iPhone 18 series and changes in the release timing of the Pro and standard models could act as variables. Meanwhile, Apple is expected to launch its first foldable smartphone in the first quarter of this year, with initial shipments in the low millions, laying the groundwork for portfolio expansion.
Major Chinese smartphone manufacturers are facing the greatest pressure due to their portfolios centered on mid-range products and their high exposure to Shinhung markets. Shipments from major Chinese manufacturers—including Honor, Huawei, Oppo Group, Transsion Group, Vivo, and Xiaomi—are expected to decline by approximately 15–34% this year. As these companies focus on securing financial stability by scaling back low-margin product lines and discontinuing unprofitable models, industry consolidation is likely to accelerate.
However, Huawei is projected to buck the trend, posting exceptional growth of about 8% this year and an additional 4.3% in 2027, driven by robust domestic demand, improved capabilities in sourcing domestically produced components, and progress related to HiSilicon processors.
Counterpoint Research forecasts that global shipments will begin a full-fledged rebound in 2028, growing by approximately 4.8% driven by improved component supply and stable retail prices. Meanwhile, while foldable phones and on-device AI will support the shift toward premium products, they are unlikely to drive a “supercycle” for the entire market. The firm expects the widespread commercialization of 6G in the late 2020s to drive gradual replacement demand and aid the market’s recovery.
