[Edaily Reporter PARK MIN ] On the 25th, DS Investment & Securities assessed that the value of HM17321, an obesity treatment candidate developed by HanmiPharm(128940), has become more concrete. The firm raised its target price from 680,000 won to 720,000 won and maintained its “Buy” rating. Considering that the previous day’s closing price was 540,000 won, this represents an upside potential of 33.3%.

Kim Min-jeong, an analyst at DS Investment & Securities, stated in a report published that day, “Through the technology transfer to Genentech of ‘HM17321’ (an UCN2 analog), a drug candidate for treating metabolic diseases such as obesity and type 2 diabetes, the likelihood of a successful outcome for the ongoing Phase 1 single-dose (SAD) clinical trial has increased.”

She added, “We can expect further growth in corporate value through the upcoming domestic approval and launch of the obesity treatment efpeglenatide, as well as the announcement of results from the Phase 1 clinical trial of HM17321 and the Phase 2 clinical trial of HM15275.”

HanmiPharm signed a technology transfer agreement with Genentech the previous day (the 24th) for the worldwide rights to “HM17321,” a candidate drug for the treatment of obesity and metabolic diseases. The upfront payment is approximately 262.9 billion won, and the total contract value, including milestones tied to clinical development, approval, and commercialization, amounts to approximately 3.1892 trillion won. In addition, the company will receive separate royalties following the product’s launch.

The key point of this technology transfer is that Genentech, a global pharmaceutical company, has recognized the development potential of HM17321. HM17321 is a UCN-2 analog that selectively acts on CRFR2; it is a candidate drug designed to address the muscle loss associated with existing GLP-1-based obesity treatments while simultaneously targeting fat reduction and muscle gain.

DS Investment & Securities assessed that this technology transfer agreement has increased the likelihood of clinical success for HM17321, which is currently in Phase 1 clinical trials. Accordingly, the company has newly reflected the pipeline value of HM17321—which had not been factored into the existing enterprise value—at approximately 1.3315 trillion won.

The value of HM17321 was calculated by comparing it to past similar technology transfer cases. The firm referenced the 2023 acquisition by Eli Lilly of Versanis Bio—which was developing the muscle-preserving antibody Bimagrumab—for up to $1.925 billion. Taking into account that HM17321 is currently in Phase 1 clinical trials, a 50% clinical-stage discount rate was applied, resulting in a valuation of 1.3315 trillion won.

DS Investment & Securities also identified HanmiPharm’s other obesity treatment candidate, HM15275, as a potential driver of further stock price growth in the future. HM15275 is a triple-action agent that simultaneously stimulates GLP-1, GIP, and GCG, and is currently undergoing a Phase 2 clinical trial involving 267 participants over a 36-week observation period. In the Phase 1 trial, an 8-mg dose resulted in a placebo-adjusted weight loss rate of 4.81% at the 4-week mark.

Analysts note that the Phase 2 clinical trial results at Week 36—scheduled for release in the first half of next year—are particularly significant. HanmiPharm has set a development target of a weight loss rate of 25% or higher for HM15275. DS Investment & Securities projected that if HM15275 demonstrates a weight loss rate of 20% or higher at Week 36, it would be possible to view the achievement of the target of 25% or higher during long-term administration in a positive light.

However, the firm noted that investors should be cautious, as the poor performance of its major subsidiary, Beijing Hanmi, is likely to persist for the time being. In the second quarter of this year, Beijing Hanmi’s operating profit plummeted 97.5% year-over-year to just 600 million won, due to the seasonal off-peak period and the intensifying impact of China’s centralized procurement system.

Reflecting these conditions, Daol Investment & Securities projected HanmiPharm’s revenue for this year at 1.891 trillion won and operating profit at 405.7 billion won. Operating profit is expected to increase by 57.4% year-over-year. The firm estimated that by 2027, the company will record revenue of 1.89 trillion won and operating profit of 417.2 billion won.