[Edaily Reporter Park Jung-Soo ] On the 26th, MIRAE ASSET SECURITIES stated that the recent decline in SamsungElectronics(005930)’s stock price was an overreaction to macroeconomic uncertainty, and maintained its “Buy” rating and target price of 370,000 won. The closing price on the 24th was 257,000 won, leaving upside potential of 44.0%.
Kim Young-geon, an analyst at MIRAE ASSET SECURITIES, stated, “Despite record-breaking shareholder returns, the stock price is overreacting due to concerns about macroeconomic uncertainty,” adding, “Based on the current stock price, the 12-month forward price-to-book ratio (PBR) and price-to-earnings ratio (PER) stand at 1.7x and 4.3x, respectively, having fallen to levels seen before the artificial intelligence (AI) cycle.” He went on to emphasize, “There have been limited meaningful changes in the operating environment and industry outlook.”
In particular, the analyst viewed the large-scale shareholder returns as likely to provide support against a decline in the stock price. On the 21st, SamsungElectronics announced shareholder returns totaling 90 trillion to 110 trillion won for this year. The company plans to pay approximately 30 trillion won in cash dividends during the third quarter, with the remaining amount to be finalized at a board meeting in January of next year. Based on the closing price on the 24th, this year’s highest dividend yield stands at 8.3% for common stock and 11.0% for preferred stock.
The firm also maintained its earnings outlook. MIRAE ASSET SECURITIES projected SamsungElectronics’ operating profit for the third and fourth quarters of this year at 120 trillion won and 126 trillion won, respectively. The annual operating profit forecast for next year is 559 trillion won. With DRAM supply and demand expected to remain tight through 2028, the firm forecasts that the average selling price (ASP) of DRAM will rise by 15% in the third quarter of this year, 5% in the fourth quarter, and 22% next year, driven primarily by price increases for High Bandwidth Memory (HBM). Analysts note that earnings volatility is decreasing as more than half of revenue is locked into long-term supply agreements (LTAs).
The report also assessed that concerns over a memory supply glut originating in China are limited. Based on a site visit by MIRAE ASSET SECURITIES to seven local Chinese semiconductor companies from the 17th to the 22nd, it was determined that demand for AI infrastructure in China is growing rapidly. The report explains that the primary source of demand has shifted from government subsidies to actual demand from cloud service providers (CSPs) and AI model developers, and that CSPs’ capital expenditure plans are also being revised upward one after another. The proliferation of Chinese-made AI accelerators is also driving an increase in local HBM demand.
On the other hand, the firm projected that China’s path to HBM self-sufficiency would be slower than expected. Local accelerator manufacturers anticipate achieving self-sufficiency in HBM3-class products in about two years; the analysis suggests that domestic production volumes are failing to keep pace with surging demand. Consequently, while an expansion of HBM production by CXMT is inevitable, the firm judged that the likelihood of an oversupply of DRAM originating from China is limited, as HBM has a production capacity (Capa) erosion rate approximately four times higher than that of standard DRAM.
SamsungElectronics’ competitive edge in custom HBM technology was also cited as a factor in the revaluation of its corporate value. At “Hot Chips 2026,” SamsungElectronics unveiled a three-phase roadmap for custom HBM. By applying its proprietary 4-nanometer (nm) process to the base die, the company integrated the XPU’s memory controller and reduced peak heat generation by 35% through HPB. The company also unveiled “zHBM,” which stacks memory directly on top of the XPU without an interposer, explaining that it can reduce power consumption by approximately 70 percent.
Researcher Kim stated, “zHBM is uncharted territory for the industry, requiring hybrid bonding with a pitch of 6 micrometers (μm) or less and an integrated design of memory and system-on-chip (SoC),” adding, “It is a technology that only SamsungElectronics—which possesses memory, leading-edge foundry capabilities, and advanced packaging—can internalize.” He went on to predict, “Shareholder returns are providing a floor, and the technological advantage in custom HBM will ultimately lead to a revaluation of the company’s value.”