[Edaily Reporter Kim Kyung-eun ] Following the domestic stock market, retail investors are adopting an increasingly wait-and-see attitude in the U.S. stock market as well. Last month, while the total value of U.S. stocks held by “Seohak Gaemi” (retail investors in the U.S. stock market) rose again, net purchases plummeted by more than half, and total trading volume declined for the second consecutive month. This is interpreted as investors scaling back additional trades and monitoring the market’s direction amid rising interest rates and uncertainty surrounding monetary policy.

According to the Korea Securities Depository on the 3rd, the value of U.S. stocks held by domestic investors stood at $188,364.18 million as of the 31st of last month. This represents an increase of approximately 9.8% compared to the previous month.

The value of U.S. stocks held by domestic investors peaked at $204.2 billion in May, but then declined for two consecutive months to $194.8 billion in June and $171.5 billion in July. This is believed to be due to a sell-off in U.S. stocks in June amid a bull market in the domestic stock market, followed by a decline in the market value of holdings in July as U.S. tech stocks underwent a correction.

However, in August, U.S. tech stocks rebounded, and the market value of holdings appears to have recovered. Over the course of August, the Nasdaq 100 Index rose 4.18%, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index increased 1.98% during the same period. The S&P 500 Index hit a record high last month, rising 2.62% over the month.

Although the value of shares held by “Seohak Gaemi” investors increased, buying momentum actually weakened. Net purchases of U.S. stocks in August totaled $1.96234 billion, a sharp 57.7% drop compared to the previous month’s $4.64241 billion. In effect, buying intensity fell to less than half within a single month.

Trading volume itself also declined. Last month, the total settlement value—the sum of buy and sell settlements for U.S. stocks—was $38,983,590,000. The average daily settlement value, calculated based on U.S. stock market trading days, fell from $2.9833 billion in June to $2.0861 billion in July, and then further declined to around $1.856 billion in August. This represents a decrease of approximately 11.0% from the previous month and 37.8% compared to June.

On a monthly basis, domestic investors’ net purchases of U.S. stocks decreased from $5.003 billion in January to $3.9491 billion in February and $1.6915 billion in March. In April and May, they turned to net sales of $468.9 million and $939.8 million, respectively. This is believed to be due to a shift of some funds from foreign stocks to domestic stocks as the domestic stock market showed strength in the first half of the year.

Subsequently, net buying resumed in June at $633 million and surged to $4.6424 billion in July, but it contracted again in August. Analysts attribute this to a base effect resulting from the unusually large net buying in July, compounded by uncertainty over U.S. monetary policy and rising long-term interest rates, which are making investment decisions difficult.

On the 2nd (local time), the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note surpassed 4.82% during the trading session, hitting its highest level in about 2 years and 10 months—since November 2023. Although it subsequently retreated slightly to the 4.79% range, it remains at a high level.

Securities analysts believe that while uncertainty surrounding interest rates and monetary policy could increase volatility in the U.S. stock market in the short term, it is unlikely that the upward trend itself will be reversed. This is because corporate profits are growing rapidly, and valuation pressures have eased somewhat due to the recent market correction.

Park Hye-ran, an analyst at Samsung Securities, explained, “Although the likelihood of a rate hike in September has risen again, we still lean toward a rate freeze,” adding, “This is because we expect seasonal weakness in the labor market in July and August and a continued slowdown in inflation in August.” She continued, “As the midterm elections approach, it is highly likely that risk management measures will be implemented regarding tensions with Iran,” adding, “We expect that rising market interest rates and caution in the stock market will ease within the next one to two weeks.”