[Edaily Hyera Lee Reporter Noh Hee-jun] Although suspicions surrounding Kim Seung-won, the nominee for Minister of Justice—a key figure in the Lee Jae-myung administration’s second cabinet reshuffle—are mounting, analysts say it is unlikely that President Lee Jae-myung will withdraw his nomination. This is because, at the very least from a legal standpoint, the allegations are difficult to view as grounds for disqualification from the ministerial post; moreover, with the likelihood of nominee Yong Hye-in’s withdrawal from the Ministry of Gender Equality and Family growing, the political burden of withdrawing Kim’s nomination as well would be too great. There is also speculation that Kim’s nomination is necessary for the government to complete its judicial reform. Analysts suggest that the issue surrounding Nominee Yong’s fate actually presents a dilemma.

◇“The Allegations Raised Do Not Warrant Withdrawal of Nomination”
Experts agreed that while the allegations against Nominee Kim are serious enough to cast doubt on his suitability as a ministerial nominee, they do not constitute a decisive reason for President Lee to withdraw the nomination. Regarding the allegation of soliciting favors related to new drug clinical trials at the Ministry of Food and Drug Safety—which has emerged as the biggest controversy—they argued that no clear violation of the law has been confirmed, and that President Lee nominated Nominee Kim despite being aware that he had received a deferred prosecution decision in that case.

Political commentator Park Sang-byeong stated, “This is a matter involving poor conduct and moral issues,” but added, “Since there has been no clear determination of a legal violation involving the receipt of money in exchange for favors, the nomination is unlikely to be withdrawn based solely on the allegations currently being raised.” Park Chang-hwan, a special professor at Jang-an University, flatly stated, “If the prosecution had had evidence at the time that would have led to a guilty verdict, there is no way they would have refrained from indicting him,” adding, “There is no possibility that the nomination will be withdrawn on these grounds or that Nominee Kim will voluntarily step down.” Political commentator Lee Jong-hoon explained, “The very act of nominating him as Minister of Justice indicates that the administration judged the matter to have been legally concluded with the deferred prosecution at that time.”

◇Concerns Over a Stigma of Personnel Failure If Both Yong and Kim Are Disqualified
Experts believe President Lee will inevitably have to consider the political burden that would arise if Nominee Kim were to withdraw. With pressure mounting for Nominee Yong to resign, if Nominee Kim were to withdraw as well, the cabinet reshuffle—undertaken to revitalize state affairs—could be branded a personnel failure. Analysts suggest it is highly likely that the Blue House and the ruling party will respond in a way that saves at least one of the two nominees.

Eom Kyung-young, director of the Institute for the Spirit of the Times, predicted, “There is a possibility they will employ a strategy of using Nominee Yong as leverage to save Kim Seung-won,” adding, “To prevent the controversy surrounding Nominee Kim from spreading, they might prompt Nominee Yong to voluntarily step down early.” Choi Chang-ryeol, a special professor at Yongin University, also assessed that given the high likelihood that nominee Yong’s nomination will be withdrawn—either through the withdrawal of the nomination or his voluntary resignation—the government is unlikely to force nominee Kim to step down as well.

Experts also analyze that President Lee will push ahead with Candidate Kim’s nomination to secure momentum for the judicial reforms the government is currently pursuing. With the transition to a new criminal justice system—marked by the launch of the Public Prosecution Service under the Ministry of Justice—imminent, it is difficult to leave the ministerial position vacant for an extended period. Kim Jin-wook, a special professor at Shinhan University, assessed, “With the launch of the Public Prosecution Service just one month away, the ministerial position overseeing the ministry remains vacant,” adding, “The Blue House will also expect Nominee Kim to assume his role swiftly to ensure the new system’s stable implementation.” Professor Choi also noted, “Follow-up legislation and measures are needed in light of the abolition of prosecutors’ supplementary investigative powers,” adding, “Given that the task of completing judicial reform remains, the President will likely take this into consideration.”

◇Yong Hye-in, Kim Min-seok: Welcome → Deliberation → What’s Next?
Unlike with Nominee Kim, the issue of how to handle Nominee Yong presents a dilemma for the ruling party. While Nominee Kim is clearly the subject of an “all-out defense,” Nominee Yong is viewed as a “losing card” that should be discarded in light of public sentiment. However, under the Kim Min-seok leadership—which emphasizes a “one-team” approach among the party, government, and Blue House—the party cannot openly interfere with the President’s appointment authority. If Party Leader Kim were to publicly demand that the party “cut ties with Yong Hye-in,” it could lead to controversy over a lack of coordination. Criticism is mounting both inside and outside the party as Nominee Yong refuses to relinquish the proportional representation seat she secured twice through a “loophole”—the satellite party.

Shin Yul, a professor in the Department of Political Science and International Relations at Myongji University, said, “Since matters concerning ministerial nominees fall under the president’s appointment authority, even the party leader has limited room to act in practice,” adding, “However, the party leader could indirectly convey the party’s position to the Blue House.” Party Leader Kim Min-seok’s stance on Nominee Yong has shifted rapidly over the past week. On the day of the nomination, Leader Kim posted on his social media, “I welcome this cabinet reshuffle, which symbolizes competence, youth, and the strengthening of the progressive-reform alliance.” However, just three days later—on the 3rd—he changed his tone regarding Nominee Yong, stating, “I am giving this deep thought after hearing many concerns and criticisms.” An official from the Democratic Party leadership told a reporter in a phone call, “In politics, how the public perceives things is very important,” adding, “If this atmosphere persists for too long, it will affect the party’s approval ratings. We must not let this escalate into an issue of fairness among young people.” In a Gallup Korea poll conducted from the 1st to the 3rd among 1,001 people nationwide aged 18 and older, President Lee’s job approval rating stood at 40%, marking his lowest since taking office. (Conducted via telephone interviews with pollsters using randomly selected virtual mobile phone numbers. Margin of error: ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level; contact rate: 47.4%; response rate: 10.9%. For details, refer to the National Election Survey Deliberation Commission website.)