[Edaily Reporter Kim Kyung-eun ] Despite concerns that the pace of artificial intelligence (AI) technology development may be slower than expected, analysis shows that actual investment in AI infrastructure and memory orders are actually on the rise. With major memory manufacturers meeting only about 60% of customer demand and inventories falling to record lows, forecasts indicate that supply shortages will become even more severe next year.

Kim Dong-won, Head of Research at KB Securities, stated in a report on the 16th, “It is premature to directly link the possibility of delays in the release schedules of individual AI models to a slowdown in the AI infrastructure investment cycle.”

In the semiconductor market recently, concerns have been mounting not so much about earnings as about the possibility that the pace of AI technology development will be slower than initially expected. However, it is explained that the actual investment plans of Big Tech companies are moving in the opposite direction.

According to KB Securities, as of this month, U.S. hyperscalers’ AI infrastructure investment for 2027 is projected to reach $1.3 trillion (approximately 1,755 trillion won), a 63% increase from the previous year. This represents an upward revision of about $200 billion from the previous market forecast of $1.1 trillion.

There are also no signs of slowing demand in memory orders. As of this month, orders for High-Bandwidth Memory (HBM) and high-performance DRAM from major customers have not declined. The order fulfillment rate for the three major memory manufacturers— SamsungElectronics(005930), SK hynix(000660), and Micron—remains at around 60%. This means they are unable to supply approximately 40% of the volume requested by their customers.

Inventories have also declined rapidly. Inventories at major memory manufacturers have hit historic lows, standing at less than 10 days’ worth. With supply capacity expected to become even tighter next year, analysts note that major customers are stepping up efforts to secure supplies in advance to prepare for a potential shortage in 2027.

The report also noted that this semiconductor cycle differs from those in the past. In the past, whenever concerns about slowing demand arose, semiconductor stock prices would be the first to correct. In contrast, the report explains that currently, 70% of total production capacity is tied up in binding long-term supply contracts, resulting in greater visibility into supply and demand than before.

Valuation pressures are also assessed to have eased. According to KB Securities, the estimated price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2027 stand at 3.7 times for SamsungElectronics and 3.5 times for SK hynix.

“While current semiconductor stock prices are already factoring in a slowdown in AI investment, actual orders continue to show strong momentum,” emphasized Director Kim. “Although concerns about the pace of AI development have grown, investment in AI infrastructure and memory orders are actually on an upward trend,” he added. He continued, “Now that the gap between stock prices and fundamentals is widening, this is the time to prepare for a future rebound,” and named SamsungElectronics and SK hynix as his top picks.