[Edaily Reporter Bang Sung Hoon ] A survey found that 3.3 billion people worldwide live in countries where income growth has halved. This figure has tripled from 1.1 billion a decade ago, accounting for about two out of every five people. This is the result of China, Russia, Germany, and Brazil joining the “growth slowdown club.”

◇80 low-growth countries…730 million people are actually seeing their incomes decline
According to an analysis of World Bank data by The Economist on the 17th (local time), a total of 80 countries and regions are projected to have per capita gross domestic product (GDP) growth rates in the decade through 2024 that are less than half of those seen in the previous decade. This is an increase of 12 from the 68 recorded in 2014. The combined population of these countries totals 3.3 billion—three times the 1.1 billion recorded a decade ago. Among them, 730 million people have seen their living standards actually decline.

These low-growth nations range from wealthy countries like Canada to the world’s poorest nations, such as the Democratic Republic of the Congo. While the causes vary from country to country—ranging from demographic structures to economic mismanagement—the risks they face are common. The expectation that the next generation would live better than their parents—taken for granted for decades—is now being shaken. This belief has long shaped citizens’ attitudes toward work and even their voting patterns.

Of course, some places have grown wealthier. Real income for residents of these countries and regions rose by 38% between 2014 and 2024. Nearly half of this growth was driven by India’s 1.5 billion people, who, as their birth rate fell, closed in on developed nations. The United States also outperformed other developed nations, raising the average for high-income countries.

◇Germany’s real income up 0.6% annually… China’s youth unemployment rate at 18%
The slowdown in developed countries is the result of a combination of low productivity and high immigration. While immigrants can invigorate the economy in the long term, their short-term impact on GDP growth is minimal. Companies with low productivity generate fewer profits and therefore pay less in taxes. As a shrinking budget is divided among more people, per capita GDP declines, and individuals feel as though they are losing out.

German productivity remained virtually flat from 2014 to 2024. During this period, Germans’ real income grew by an average of 0.6% annually. This is lower than the 1.5% average recorded in the 10 years immediately preceding the 2007–2009 financial crisis and the eurozone crisis. In Canada, the population grew faster than GDP, causing the unemployment rate to rise by nearly 1 percentage point in 2024.

Resource-rich countries have not recovered from the shock of the end of the commodities boom in 2014. Even export-driven success stories like Uruguay and Chile have seen income growth virtually stall. People in Latin America are hardly any better off than they were a decade ago, and sub-Saharan Africa has become 3.4% poorer. Angola, which exports oil and diamonds, has seen its per capita GDP fall by a quarter.

The situation in the emerging economic powers has also deteriorated. Since the foreign ministers of the four BRICs countries first met in 2006, India is the only one to have avoided a slowdown in growth. China’s per capita GDP growth rate from 2014 to 2024 was only half of what it was in the previous decade. The momentum of manufacturing-led catch-up growth has cooled, and domestic demand has weakened. Despite its shrinking population, Russia’s rate of improvement fell short of half its previous level.

◇“Hard work pays off”: 62% → 28%… Apathy Shakes Voter Sentiment
The repercussions extend beyond the economy. Perceptions of material progress influence election results, work motivation, and even birth rates. In 2006, Harvard University Professor Benjamin Friedman argued that as living standards improve, political stability ensues and a culture where effort is rewarded takes root. Put another way, this means that when growth stalls, the exact opposite phenomenon can occur. The younger the generation—those just starting their adult lives—the harder they are hit.

The first thing that emerges is a sense of loss—the feeling that they are worse off than previous generations. A survey of 20,000 Europeans conducted last year by a team led by Justin Guest, a professor at George Mason University, found that at least two-fifths responded that their generation is at an economic disadvantage. This “nostalgic deprivation” was strongest among those aged 18 to 34, second only to those in their 50s. A survey by the consulting firm Oliver Wyman found that 56% of Chinese people born between 1995 and 2010 expressed concern about whether they would be able to live a better life. This contrasts with a 2015 Pew Research Center survey, in which 70% of those born in the late 1980s viewed the economy positively.

This sense of loss leads to a feeling of helplessness. According to a study by researchers at Stanford University, only 28% of Chinese respondents in 2023 agreed that “hard work is always rewarded,” a sharp decline from 62% in 2014. The unemployment rate among urban youth in China stood at 18% last July, and approximately two-fifths of the 23- to 28-year-olds without jobs were college graduates.

The political repercussions are also clear. A team of visiting professors found that Western Europeans experiencing nostalgia-driven deprivation are 55 percentage points more likely to vote for populist parties than those who do not. A study by Professor Ruut Dasnoevil of the Catholic University of Leuven in Belgium showed that slowing growth destabilizes the political landscape. This is because voters hold the ruling party responsible for the worsening situation and shift their votes to the left or right.

The Economist expressed concern that, in a decade, more countries could fall into a vicious cycle where instability hinders growth, which in turn fuels further instability.