[Edaily Reporter Kim Sung-kon ] The leadership of Kim Min-seok, leader of the Democratic Party of Korea, is being put to the test. With the party facing crises both internally and externally, it is effectively caught between a rock and a hard place. During the August 17 national convention, Kim Min-seok criticized the previous leadership under Jeong Cheong-rae and emphasized political stability through close coordination between the party and the government. However, the harsh reality is that the Democratic Party’s current situation has become far more difficult than it was during the tenure of former leader Jeong Cheong-rae. In fact, since the convention, both President Lee Jae-myung’s and the Democratic Party’s approval ratings have fallen in tandem.

Chairman Kim is a politician with an indomitable will to wield power. During the 2002 presidential election, a wrong choice led him to spend a full 18 years as a political outcast—a period so long that a comeback seemed impossible. Yet Chairman Kim rose again like a roly-poly toy. Through the 21st and 22nd National Assembly elections, he made a spectacular comeback as the first Prime Minister of the Lee Jae-myung administration and as the leader of the ruling party. All that remains now is victory in the general election and the next presidential race. However, just over a month after taking office as party leader, everything is beginning to waver.

◇Where Did the 10% Rise in Approval Ratings Go? Ruling and Opposition Party Support Ratings Have Actually Reversed

In mid-August, while the Democratic Party’s national convention was in full swing, a series of opinion polls showed that President Lee Jae-myung’s approval rating for his handling of state affairs had fallen to the 40% range. Former Party Leader Jeong Cheong-rae cited the defection of the core support base as the cause. In contrast, Chairman Kim pointed to “disharmony between the party and the administration” as the root cause. Chairman Kim stated, “The approval rating for state affairs will recover only when the relationship between the party and the administration is firmly strengthened. I am confident that if I am elected, the Democratic Party’s approval rating decline will stop, and we will recover 10 percentage points within three months,” he said, emphasizing, “Within a month, the party’s approval rating will begin to rise, the president’s approval rating will follow suit, and it will soon surpass the president’s.”

Chairman Kim’s bold assertion turned out to be an empty promise. According to Realmeter, the Democratic Party’s approval rating fell in tandem with the president’s plummeting approval rating. As of the second week of August, the Democratic Party’s approval rating stood at 47.9%, approaching the 50% mark. The People Power Party stood at a mere 33.1%. The party approval ratings for the fourth week of September, released after the Chuseok holiday, were shocking. The Democratic Party stood at 38.7%, while the People Power Party was at 39.4%. Although within the margin of error, this marked a reversal in the standings. Far from a future rebound in support, the party now finds itself in a position where it must worry about further declines. In a recent Gallup Korea survey evaluating the performance of the leaders of the two major parties, Chairman Kim recorded a 30% approval rating and a 48% disapproval rating. Although this was during a period when President Lee’s approval rating was much higher, it still falls short of the positive ratings recorded by former party leader Jeong Cheong-rae—a rival in the party convention—who received 43% in September of last year and 38% in February of this year. As this somewhat awkward situation persisted, Chairman Kim effectively canceled the press conference marking his first month in office, which had been scheduled for the 20th.

◇ Controversy Over Appearance on “Minti07” Amid Failure to Convey the Message: “The More You Look at It, the Better the Appointment”

Key politicians from both the ruling and opposition parties appear on numerous media outlets—including newspaper and broadcast interviews, YouTube, and radio current affairs programs. The general rule is to appear on media with large readerships or viewerships, or on channels frequently watched by one’s support base, as this is the most effective way to convey a message. From this perspective, Chairperson Kim’s messaging strategy has failed. To achieve progressive unity, it was essential to appear on YouTube shows like “Kim Eo-jun’s Humility Is Hard: News Factory” and “Maebul Show”—the media platforms most preferred by the traditional pro-Roh and pro-Moon support base. Although Representative Kim encouraged party lawmakers to appear on these programs, he himself stopped appearing on them after the party convention. Conversely, he continued to appear regularly only on “Minti07,” a major revamp of the existing Democratic Party TV channel. Consequently, the level of media and public attention inevitably declined.

Another example that symbolically illustrates Chairman Kim’s failure in messaging was his embarrassing praise of a controversial figure. On the 11th, prior to the voluntary resignation of former Justice Minister nominee Kim Seung-won, he remarked, “The more I look at it, the better this appointment seems.” This statement directly contradicted public opinion, which had already leaned toward “opposing the appointment.” It was a gaffe that spawned countless parodies. But that’s not all. His decision to publicly list former party leader Jeong—his rival in the party convention—as a potential candidate for the Seoul mayoral by-election next April also drew backlash from some supporters. This was particularly difficult to understand given the urgent need to foster a strong, cohesive bond among the party’s base. Furthermore, amid the controversy over the re-nomination of a Supreme Court justice, his public reference to Chief Justice Cho Hee-dae as “Mr. Cho Hee-dae” drew criticism that he had gone too far.

◇A Haphazard Expansion of Political Fronts: From Pushing for the Removal of Han Dong-hoon and Lee Jin-sook to a Standoff with Choo Mi-ae and Cho Kuk

Chairman Kim has unnecessarily broadened his political front to an excessive degree. In the cases of independent lawmaker Han Dong-hoon and People Power Party lawmaker Lee Jin-sook, it was a case of “stirring up trouble where none existed.” On closer inspection, there was no reason for Chairwoman Kim to step in and elevate their political stature. While explaining the “Han Dong-hoon·Lee Jin-sook OUT” incident involving a notebook in the plenary chamber, Chairwoman Kim stated, “Lee Jin-sook and Han Dong-hoon are people who should not be in the National Assembly,” hinting at efforts to expel them from the National Assembly or suspend their qualifications. Realistically, this was impossible. The counterattack proved unexpectedly painful. Rep. Lee Jin-sook, in response to being labeled the “female Chun Doo-hwan,” dredged up Chairman Kim’s own past scandal—the “New Millennium NHK” incident. Rep. Han Dong-hoon also countered by bringing up Chairman Kim’s past political funding scandal and the “New Millennium NHK” incident, causing Chairman Kim to lose face.

Clashes with figures across the ruling bloc were also frequent. Conflicts with Gyeonggi Governor Choo Mi-ae and Cho Kuk, director of the Innovation Policy Research Institute at the Cho Kuk Innovation Party, are prime examples. Regarding Governor Choo’s remarks criticizing the nomination of the first head of the Central Investigation Agency, Chairman Kim sparked controversy by calling them “a precursor to the impeachment of Roh Moo-hyun.” Furthermore, the issue of merging with the Cho Kuk Innovation Party—a prerequisite for victory in the next general election—remains a burden, as minor and major power struggles continue without significant progress. With the outlook for victory in the Seoul metropolitan area in the next general election looking uncertain due to deteriorating public sentiment over real estate issues, the Cho Kuk Innovation Party running independently would be a massive liability. The problem is that as time passes, the possibility of unification and solidarity is fading, while the cracks of division are only growing louder.

◇Amid a Mountain of Adverse Factors in the National Assembly Hearings, the Head-on Clash Between “Lee Jae-myung and Yoo Si-min” Is Also a Major Challenge

The future political environment surrounding Representative Kim is also uncertain. With the upcoming October parliamentary oversight hearings, there is a mountain of negative issues. △ Calls for accountability from Kim Hyun-ji and Jeong Jin-sang regarding the personnel scandal △ Controversy over the request for disciplinary action against a Supreme Court justice △ An explosion in the Demilitarized Zone suspected to be caused by a landmine—these are all megaton-level issues on which the opposition is expected to launch an all-out offensive. An even bigger problem is the head-on clash between President Lee Jae-myung and author Yu Si-min. The situation has worsened since President Lee’s September 18 press conference addressed to the nation. Writer Yu Si-min accused the President of “deceiving the public” regarding prosecutorial reform, while President Lee countered by citing the failure to amend the National Security Act in 2004 as an example to pin the blame on Yu. Resolving the conflict between the two is the top priority for unifying the broader ruling bloc, but structurally, it is an issue that Chairman Kim finds difficult to control.

Chairman Kim rose to his position at the last party convention not on the strength of his own independent political brand, but thanks to President Lee’s strong support and backing. In effect, he and President Lee share a common political destiny. Only if President Lee’s administration succeeds can Chairman Kim chart his own political future. If he were to distance himself from President Lee and attempt to differentiate himself, his political base itself could simply crumble. With a long road ahead of him, Representative Kim is inevitably caught in an endless dilemma between public opinion and political reality.

◇The Next Presidential Race Is a Long-Term Contest: What Is Chairman Kim Min-seok’s Gambit?

Chairman Kim was once considered the next-generation leader of the Democratic Party, dubbed “Korea’s Kennedy.” In 2001, he even ranked second in a New Millennium Democratic Party presidential primary poll, trailing only candidate Lee In-je, who was widely seen as the frontrunner at the time. However, born in 1964 and aged 38 at the time, he was forced to abandon his presidential bid due to age restrictions and shifted his focus to the Seoul mayoral election. Once a leading figure of the “386 generation”—which heralded the dawn of the “86 generation”—Chairman Kim is now the leader of the ruling party, part of the group known as the “686” (those born in the 1960s, who attended university in the 1980s, and are now in their 60s). The race to the next presidential election is a long one. Since he has only just stepped onto the starting line, there is still plenty of time to make a comeback. However, his performance over the first month or so has been nothing short of disastrous.

Some in Yeouido have pointed out that Representative Kim has focused on “insider politics”—driven by his sights set on the next presidential race—rather than on unifying and forming alliances within the broader ruling bloc. The advice is that he should calmly steady his political pace rather than rushing ahead.

Eom Kyung-young, director of the Spirit of the Times Research Institute, stated, “The Kim Min-seok leadership is in a serious crisis. If the Seoul mayoral by-election next April takes place and we lose, a transition to an emergency committee system will be inevitable,” he said, adding, “A two-track strategy is needed: expanding the moderate base through a policy-oriented approach that reexamines national agenda items, and unifying the progressive camp through a political approach. In particular, it seems necessary for Representative Kim Min-seok to coordinate behind the scenes to facilitate an informal meeting between President Lee Jae-myung and writer Yu Si-min to reach a decisive resolution.” Choi Jin, president of the Presidential Leadership Research Institute, stated, “Representative Kim Min-seok is devoting too much energy to political issues as the president’s bodyguard. This is not much different from ‘Jeong Cheong-rae Season 2.’” He urged, “To escape this crisis, the party must go all-in on key policy issues—such as real estate, small and medium-sized enterprises, and youth—and deliver tangible results in areas affecting people’s livelihoods.”