[Edaily Reporter kyoungeun kim ] Earnings forecasts for listed companies are diverging significantly by sector ahead of the third-quarter earnings announcements. While earnings estimates for the securities and large-cap electronics sectors have been lowered, those for air transportation and the refining and energy sectors have been revised upward. External factors such as the won-dollar exchange rate, international oil prices, and trading volume appear to be driving the divergence in profitability outlooks across sectors.
◇ Listed Companies’ 3Q Operating Profits Fluctuate Amid Semiconductor Sector Volatility
According to financial information provider FnGuide Inc. on the 29th, the third-quarter operating profit forecast for 256 listed companies—for which consensus estimates from at least three sources were available—totaled 257.6751 trillion won. This figure represents a 1.5% decrease from the forecast made one month ago (261.6237 trillion won). Net income estimates fell by 3.3% to 196.2975 trillion won.
The downward revision in overall profit forecasts was largely driven by major semiconductor stocks. The third-quarter operating profit estimate for the “Semiconductors and Related Equipment” sector stood at 188.9587 trillion won, down 1.9% from a month ago. The net income forecast also fell by 4.2%.
SamsungElectronics(005930)The operating profit consensus for [Company Name] fell by 2.5% from 113.1142 trillion won a month ago to 110.2803 trillion won. The net income forecast decreased by 6.5%. For [ SK hynix(000660)], the operating profit forecast was also revised downward by 0.9% from a month ago to 78.8035 trillion won.
Analysts attribute this primarily to the won-dollar exchange rate fluctuations and their impact on won-denominated figures. Additionally, expectations for large-cap stocks have been slightly lowered as analysts reassessed factors such as rising costs and one-time expenses, including performance bonuses paid by SamsungElectronics.
The display sector also underperformed. Due to a slowdown in Chonbang demand caused by rising semiconductor prices, the third-quarter operating profit estimate for LG Display(034220)fell by 15.7% from 439.1 billion won a month ago to 370.3 billion won. This indicates that even within the electrical and electronics sector, earnings expectations are diverging depending on product-specific demand and whether cost burdens can be passed on to customers.
The securities sector took a direct hit from declining trading volumes. The third-quarter operating profit forecast for the securities sector stands at 3.5031 trillion won, down 8.3% from a month ago. The net profit forecast also fell by 6.7% to 2.7115 trillion won.
MIRAE ASSET SECURITIES(006800)The operating profit forecast for [Company Name] plummeted 24.9%, from 396.9 billion won a month ago to 298.2 billion won. KOREA INVESTMENT HOLDINGS(071050)(-13.7%), KIWOOM Securities(039490)(-7.0%), SamsungSecurities(016360)(-5.4%), and NH INVESTMENT & SECURITIES(005940)(-5.1%) were all revised downward. As trading volume declines, commission revenue from brokerage transactions decreases, and investment income from securities is also under pressure due to rising bond yields.
◇ Effects of Exchange Rates and Oil Prices… Airlines and Refiners ‘Fill Their Coffers’
Forecasts for the oil refining sector were raised, reflecting rising international oil prices and expectations of improved refining margins. The estimated operating profit for the oil and gas sector in the third quarter rose 1.6% from a month ago to 7.4191 trillion won. The net profit forecast was revised upward by 12.9%.
SK Innovation(096770)The operating profit forecast for [Company Name] jumped 18.3% from 1.7066 trillion won a month ago to 2.0187 trillion won. The net income forecast also rose by 27.6%. For S-OilCorporation(010950), the operating profit forecast rose 2.6% from 1.0573 trillion won to 1.0853 trillion won. However, the overall operating profit forecast for the chemical sector fell 7.2% compared to a month ago, indicating that the disparity in the pace of recovery between the refining and petrochemical sectors persists.
Earnings momentum is also evident in the transportation sector, which is sensitive to exchange rate fluctuations. The third-quarter net income forecast for the air transportation sector surged 457.1% from 95.4 billion won a month ago to 531.3 billion won. Although the operating profit forecast fell by 10.6% from 342.1 billion won to 306.0 billion won, this was largely offset by a 383.3% upward revision in the net income forecast for KoreanAirLines(003490)—which has a high ratio of foreign currency debt—from 103.7 billion won to 501.0 billion won. JEJUAIR, CO., LTD.’s net income forecast also shifted from a loss to a profit.
Profit forecasts for the energy facilities sector improved across the board. The operating profit forecast for the “Energy Facilities and Services” sector rose 6.1% from a month ago to 327.4 billion won. Driven by the recovery of the U.S. renewable energy business, HANWHA SOLUTIONS(009830)’s operating profit forecast was revised upward by 8.9%, from 191.2 billion won to 208.3 billion won.
The market views third-quarter earnings as being driven by sector-specific momentum influenced by external factors such as exchange rates, oil prices, and stock market trading volume.
Kim Kyu-jin, an analyst at NH INVESTMENT & SECURITIES, stated, “In the third quarter, exchange rate effects stemming from foreign currency assets and liabilities are impacting pre-tax profits,” adding, “Amid continued performance divergence, the IT sector will still be the primary driver of earnings growth.”