[Edaily Reporter Bang Sung Hoon ] Warnings have been issued that U.S. diesel prices, which have surged by about 80% so far this year, could drive up the cost of living across the board—including groceries, clothing, and home appliances. This is because even if consumers do not purchase diesel directly, the burden could be passed on to them through higher shipping costs.

According to MarketWatch on the 1st (local time), Barclays analyzed in a report released that day that if high diesel prices persist, the approximately 80% increase in diesel prices this year could push up the overall consumer price inflation rate by 0.2 to 0.3 percentage points and the core inflation rate (excluding food and energy) by 0.15 to 0.23 percentage points. The report went on to emphasize, “While most consumers do not purchase diesel directly, it is the fuel that powers goods and services throughout the economy.”

According to the American Automobile Association (AAA), U.S. diesel prices hit an all-time high of nearly $6.53 (approximately 8,874 won) per gallon (about 3.8 liters) on the 22nd of last month and are currently selling for about $6.39 (approximately 8,684 won). A year ago, the price was $3.71 (approximately 5,042 won).

Barclays explained that diesel prices have surged as fuel inventories have fallen to historically low levels due to supply disruptions originating in the Middle East and Russia, years of stagnant refining capacity outside Asia and the Middle East, robust global demand for middle distillates such as diesel, and increased U.S. exports.

The categories most exposed to freight and fuel costs include food, automobiles, household durables, recreational goods, aviation, and delivery services. Among durables, the transportation margin (the cost added to the product price to cover shipping expenses) is highest for furniture and household appliances, accounting for about 4–5% of the final consumer price.

For example, of the price of a $2,000 (approximately 2,718,000 won) refrigerator, $80 to $100 (approximately 108,720 to 135,900 won) could be the transportation margin. For a $20 (approximately 27,180 won) toy, about $3 (approximately 4,077 won) is the transportation cost.

Although diesel prices have risen steadily over the past few months, there has not yet been a noticeable impact on the prices of basic commodities or food. However, some trucking, parcel delivery, and rail transport networks have raised their diesel surcharges.

Barclays warned that if high oil prices persist, companies will be increasingly inclined to pass on costs to prices, stating that “sustainability is the key.” The firm explained that the longer price increases persist, the higher the likelihood that they will trickle down to consumer prices through contracts, inventory, and supply chains.

Transportation margins reflect only the final leg of transport from producer to consumer. However, many consumer goods, such as food and beverages, rely on freight services at various stages of production, including the transport of raw materials and packaging materials.

Barclays therefore noted that the impact of the “diesel shock” extends beyond items with high transportation margins, pointing out that “significant ripple effects” are likely to emerge in sectors such as the food supply chain, automobiles and auto parts, home furnishings, apparel, and leisure goods.

Meanwhile, according to the AAA, U.S. gasoline prices fell by nearly 7 cents (about 95 won) last week, averaging $4.41 (about 5,993 won) per gallon on the 1st. However, U.S. drivers have been paying an average of more than $4 (about 5,436 won) per gallon for most of this year—the highest level since 2022.