[Edaily Reporter Kwon Oh Seok ] SamsungElectronics(005930)continues its unstoppable upward momentum, repeatedly setting new quarterly record earnings and securing the top spot in global operating profit. While most analysts in the securities industry are offering positive outlooks based on the prolonged memory semiconductor supercycle and the recovery of competitiveness in High-Bandwidth Memory (HBM), some are also raising cautious concerns regarding a potential “peak-out” (a decline following a peak).

SamsungElectronics announced in a regulatory filing on the 8th that it recorded an operating profit of 107.4 trillion won in the third quarter of this year. This represents a 782.5% increase compared to the same period last year. Amid the semiconductor super-boom and the restoration of its technological competitiveness, SamsungElectronics has posted record-breaking results for four consecutive quarters since the fourth quarter of last year. Revenue rose 126.6% to 195 trillion won, and the operating profit margin hit a record high of 55.1%.
Achieving quarterly operating profit of 100 trillion won is a first for a South Korean company and a milestone that no other company in the world—except for the Saudi Arabian state-owned enterprise Aramco—has ever reached. Previously, Aramco recorded an operating profit of $86.5 billion (approximately 116 trillion won) in the second quarter of 2022, during the war in Ukraine. Although results by division and business unit were not disclosed, analysts believe that within the semiconductor division (DS), the memory business unit in particular drove the company’s overall performance.
Despite these strong results, the stock price trend stalled. At the close of regular trading that day, SamsungElectronics’ stock price fell 6,500 won (2.42%) from the previous trading day to close at 262,000 won. Nevertheless, securities firms are setting target prices as high as 630,000 won, forecasting that the stock price will more than double from its current level.
Kim Dong-won, Head of Research at KB Securities, stated, “These strong results exceeded market consensus, which had been lowered due to recent exchange rate fluctuations and the recognition of provisions,” adding, “We expect the company to enter a phase of accelerated profit growth starting in 2027 as the world’s top company in terms of operating profit.”
He continued, “We expect HBM4—which commands the highest price among the three DRAM manufacturers—to drive an increase in DRAM ASP (average selling price) starting in the first quarter of next year, and we anticipate that shareholder return policies exceeding market expectations will serve as a powerful catalyst for a stock price revaluation.” “The current situation, with a P/E ratio of just 4x, represents extreme undervaluation, and it is difficult to find any justification for this valuation discount,” he emphasized.
Ryu Hyung-geun, an analyst at DaishinSecurities, stated, “SamsungElectronics will lead the market based on △the restoration of competitiveness in its HBM business, △a pragmatic pricing policy grounded in extensive experience, and △enhanced cost competitiveness driven by improved yields in its core processes,” and set a target price of 560,000 won.
Last month, Yuanta Securities Korea set the highest target price at 630,000 won. Baek Gil-hyun, an analyst at Yuanta Securities Korea, noted, “While the pace of price increases for memory semiconductors is expected to slow somewhat, we are focusing on the fact that tight supply-demand conditions are projected to continue through 2027–2028,” adding “While the market is concerned about the possibility of a peak-out in 2028 due to new capacity expansions and noise surrounding HBM, considering HBM’s encroachment on general-purpose DRAM production capacity and the demand for high-capacity memory driven by the spread of AI (artificial intelligence) inference, the resolution of supply constraints is likely to be delayed beyond expectations,” he said.
He further advised, “If the memory upswing persists for an extended period, SamsungElectronics’ free cash flow (FCF) could expand structurally compared to the past, and we cannot rule out the possibility of the company introducing more shareholder-friendly return policies. A stock price correction driven by peak-out concerns presents a buying opportunity from a medium- to long-term perspective.”
However, there are also dissenting opinions and pessimistic views. Last month, BNK Investment & Securities lowered its target price for SamsungElectronics from 300,000 won to 270,000 won. Lee Min-hee, an analyst at BNK Securities, pointed out, “Macroeconomic uncertainty is rising, and as memory prices are unlikely to rise further, demand elasticity is declining. Meanwhile, manufacturers are aggressively expanding capacity based on optimism about long-term demand, so the outlook for memory supply and demand does not look favorable.”
She explained the rationale behind the target price cut, adding, “While the shareholder return program is positive, it is not expected to influence the stock’s price trend. Although expectations for improved foundry profitability remain valid, they appear to have been largely factored into the stock price.”