[Edaily Reporter PARK MIN ] On the 15th, Shinhan Investment Securities projected that SamaAluminium(006110)would be the biggest beneficiary of a shortage in aluminum foil due to surging demand for energy storage systems (ESS) resulting from the expansion of artificial intelligence (AI) data centers, and newly issued a “Buy” investment rating with a target price of 102,000 won. This represents an upside potential of 39.5% compared to the previous trading day’s (October 14) closing price of 73,100 won.

Lee Chae-yoon, an analyst at Shinhan Investment Securities, stated in a report published today, “Thanks to short lead times, the aluminum foil industry avoided excessive capacity expansion during the electric vehicle (EV) ‘chasm’ (a temporary slowdown in demand) and has now entered a shortage phase due to the surge in ESS demand driven by AI data centers,” adding “As the only purely publicly traded company among the three major domestic aluminum manufacturers (SamaAluminium, Lotte Aluminum, and DI DONGIL), SamaAluminium is expected to benefit the most, offering the highest beta when the industry rebounds,” he added.

According to Shinhan Investment Securities, as battery cell manufacturers accelerate the conversion of their production lines to ESS, SamaAluminium is recognized as the only domestic company capable of handling the carbon coating process—an essential step in the production of lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries. Lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries, which account for approximately 90% of new ESS installations, require a carbon coating on the aluminum foil surface to enhance electrical conductivity. Through its Pyeongtaek coating facility—scheduled for completion by the end of the year—SamaAluminium will be able to move away from outsourcing to China and secure global supply volumes free from Foreign Entity of Concern (FEOC) regulations.

In particular, the aluminum foil required for the cumulative ESS order backlog (approximately 140 GWh) of its major customer, LG Energy Solution(373220), amounts to about 57,000 metric tons—a volume equivalent to 1.4 times SamaAluminium’s annual production capacity (40,000 metric tons). The volume from this single customer
alone requires the company to operate at full capacity to meet demand.

The cost structure and profitability metrics are also rapidly returning to normal. In the first half of the year, a negative spread of $0.55 per kilogram (kg) occurred due to a time lag in reflecting selling prices following the sharp rise in London Metal Exchange (LME) aluminum prices; however, in the second half, analysts project that the spread will improve to $0.73 per kg as price increases align with stabilizing costs.

In addition, the company constructed an aluminum smelter using funds raised through a third-party private placement involving Toyota and LG Energy Solution at the end of 2022, completing the project in July 2025. The in-house production of battery-grade strips is scheduled to begin in earnest in the second half of 2027. SamaAluminium is the only company in the world that simultaneously produces aluminum strips and aluminum foil.

Shinhan Investment & Securities forecasts that SamaAluminium’s 2026 annual consolidated revenue will reach 393.3 billion won, a 44.9% increase year-over-year, and that operating profit will turn positive at 10.7 billion won. The firm further projected that in 2027, the company will record revenue of 490.5 billion won and operating profit of 46.5 billion won, and in 2028—when capacity expansions and the in-house production of strips are fully reflected—revenue will reach 597.0 billion won and operating profit will reach 76.2 billion won.

Analyst Lee Chae-yoon stated, “We calculated the target price by discounting the estimated 2028 EBITDA of 100.8 billion won and then applying a multiple of 19—the typical cycle multiple for the two copper foil companies (SKC and LOTTE ENERGY MATERIALS CORPORATION) during a normal business cycle,” adding “The current stock price already reflects the recovery in volume; as processing fees normalize and cost reductions from in-house strip production take effect, the stock is expected to continue its strong upward trend,” he said.