[Edaily Reporter KIM YOON-JEONG ] As the stock prices of Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix—South Korea’s top two semiconductor companies—have recently plummeted, the gap between securities firms’ average target prices and actual stock prices has widened significantly. Despite Samsung Electronics reporting record-breaking third-quarter earnings, the continued weakness in semiconductor stocks has created a divergence between the securities industry’s expectations for earnings growth and actual stock price movements.

◇Samsung Electronics’ Target Price More Than Double Actual Share Price… SK Hynix’s Deviation Rate at 158%
According to financial information provider FnGuide on the 15th, the average target price set by 22 securities firms that provided target prices and investment recommendations for Samsung Electronics over the past three months was 495,227 won. This is 285,227 won (135.82%) higher than the day’s closing price of 210,000 won.
Korea Investment & Securities set the highest target price for Samsung Electronics. Since raising its target price from 590,000 won to 650,000 won on July 31, the firm has not issued any additional reports, so that target price remains in effect.
Among the securities firms that have published reports on Samsung Electronics this month, SK Securities offered the highest target price of 610,000 won on the 6th. In contrast, BNK Investment & Securities has offered the lowest target price, maintaining 270,000 won since last month. The difference between the highest and lowest target prices for Samsung Electronics across securities firms reached 380,000 won.
For SK Hynix, the average target price across 22 securities firms was 3,257,727 won. This is 1,995,727 won (158.14%) higher than the day’s closing price of 1,262,000 won.
Korea Investment & Securities set the highest target price, raising it from 3.8 million won to 4.7 million won on July 30. Among reports published this month, SK Securities and IBK Investment & Securities each set the highest target price at 4 million won. In contrast, BNK Investment & Securities set the lowest target price at 1.48 million won on September 14. The difference between the highest and lowest target prices set by securities firms amounts to 3.22 million won.
In particular, SK Hynix was identified as a stock with a high discrepancy rate between the average target price set by securities firms and its actual stock price. According to FnGuide, based on the closing price on the 14th, SK Hynix’s target price discrepancy rate stood at 129.58%, ranking sixth among all stocks.
At that time, Korea Carbon (158.12%) ranked first in terms of the deviation rate. It was followed by HD Hyundai Marine & Engine (145.34%), LG Innotek (142.12%), Hyundai Rotem (137.63%), and Shinsegae (129.71%). All 10 of the top-ranked stocks had deviation rates exceeding 125%.
◇Wide Gap Between Highest and Lowest Target Prices…BNK Securities Warns of Slowing Memory Demand
While securities firms are setting high target prices for Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, BNK Investment & Securities is maintaining a “Hold” rating on both stocks, offering the most conservative outlook.
BNK Investment & Securities downgraded its investment rating on Samsung Electronics from “Buy” to “Hold” on September 14 and lowered its target price from 300,000 won to 270,000 won. In a report published on the 12th of this month, the firm maintained its “Hold” rating and target price of 270,000 won.
Lee Min-hee, an analyst at BNK Investment & Securities, noted that while investor sentiment toward artificial intelligence (AI) is improving, signs of a slowdown in memory demand are actually intensifying. She explained that Big Tech companies are adopting a strategy of reducing the memory capacity in new products—such as AI PCs and servers—below initial plans to alleviate the burden of memory costs.
The analyst stated, “The slowdown in memory demand momentum is capping the upside for the stock price, and this trend is expected to continue until prices fall again,” adding, “On the other hand, rising memory prices, strong earnings, and expectations for shareholder returns are expected to support the stock price from the downside for the time being.”
The firm also maintains a “Hold” rating on SK Hynix. BNK Investment & Securities downgraded its investment rating from “Buy” to “Hold” on April 27 and lowered its target price from 1.85 million won to 1.48 million won on July 29. It maintained the same investment rating and target price on September 14.
For SK Hynix, the firm cited downward revisions to earnings forecasts due to a slowdown in memory price growth and the strengthening of the Korean won. BNK Investment & Securities lowered its forecast for the third-quarter DRAM average selling price (ASP) growth rate from 16% to 12% quarter-over-quarter. It also lowered its forecast for the average won-dollar exchange rate from 1,480 won to 1,420 won, resulting in a 6% and 4% reduction in operating profit forecasts for the third and fourth quarters, respectively.
The analyst noted, “While memory prices are unlikely to rise further and demand elasticity is weakening, manufacturers are aggressively expanding capacity based on optimism about long-term demand, suggesting that the memory supply-demand outlook is unfavorable.”
Meanwhile, Samsung Electronics closed regular trading at 210,000 won, down 9.4% (22,000 won) from the previous trading day, while SK Hynix closed at 1,262,000 won, down 11.0% (157,000 won).
Kim Sang-bong, a professor in the Department of Economics at Hansung University, explained, “It is difficult to conclude that an analyst’s forecast is wrong simply because there is a large discrepancy between the target price and the actual stock price,” adding, “Target prices can vary depending on which variables are factored in, such as policy, industry outlook, and economic growth rates.”
He continued, “When reviewing brokerage reports, retail investors should carefully examine the analysis in the body of the report and the company’s financial figures, rather than focusing solely on the target price or investment recommendation,” and advised, “It is advisable to make investment decisions by comprehensively considering everything from macroeconomic trends to sector-specific conditions, as well as individual companies’ earnings and financial health.”