Samsung Electronics Suffers Its Worst Plunge Since the Financial Crisis… So Why Do Analysts Say It’s Fine?
Last week, SamsungElectronics: 262,000 won → 215,500 won
SK hynix: 1,681,000 won → 1,272,000 won
Reflecting Concerns Such as China’s CXMT Catch-Up and AI Overheating Fears
Suggests Potential for a Rebound Based on the Pace of Technological Innovation and Shareholder Returns
[Edaily Reporter Kwon Oh Seok ] Korea’s leading semiconductor stocks— SamsungElectronics(005930)and SK hynix(000660)—are reeling after posting their worst weekly declines since the financial crisis. This is due to a rapid cooling of investor sentiment caused by a confluence of negative factors, including persistent concerns about an AI (artificial intelligence) bubble and fears of competition from Chinese semiconductor companies. Nevertheless, the securities industry believes the recent stock price plunge is excessive and is placing greater emphasis on the potential for a rebound based on the companies’ technological capabilities and strong shareholder returns. [This image was created using AI technology.] According to MP Doctor on the 18th, SamsungElectronics’ stock price fell by approximately 17.8% during the regular trading session over the past week (the 12th–16th), dropping from 262,000 won to 215,500 won. This marks the largest weekly decline since the fourth week of October 2008—during the financial crisis—when the stock fell 19.3% between the 20th and 24th. SK hynix fell 24.3% during the same period, from 1,681,000 won to 1,272,000 won. This is the largest decline since the 31.9% plunge recorded during the third week of November 2008 (November 17–21). The stock prices of both companies fluctuated sharply amid a fierce selling spree by foreign investors. Over the past week, foreign investors sold a total of 11.2068 trillion won worth of stocks on the KOSPI market. In particular, 78.8% of the total sales volume was concentrated on just two stocks: SamsungElectronics (3.4763 trillion won) and SK hynix (5.3565 trillion won). As a result of this sell-off, SamsungElectronics’ foreign ownership ratio fell to 45.98% as of the 16th, marking the lowest level in approximately 17 years—since July 7, 2009 (45.96%). SK hynix also saw its foreign ownership ratio shrink to 48.85%, hitting its lowest level since December 23, 2021 (48.84%). The bad news stemmed from external factors. In the U.S. market, concerns about an AI bubble and “warning signs” regarding the semiconductor industry, coupled with inflation fears driven by soaring international oil prices, caused the tech-heavy Nasdaq index to plunge 2.2%. Furthermore, SK hynix has been embroiled in controversy over “dual listings” following news that its U.S. subsidiary, Solidigm, is pursuing an initial public offering (IPO). Concerns that the subsidiary’s IPO could act as a discount factor on the parent company’s enterprise value have heightened uncertainty surrounding the stock price. However, the securities industry argues that the decline is excessive, considering the industry conditions themselves and shareholder return policies. Above all, they maintain that market concerns regarding China’s Changxin Memory Technology (CXMT) catching up technologically are overstated. Previously, CXMT shocked the market by announcing the development of next-generation DRAM and its entry into cutting-edge processes. Kim Dong-won, Head of Research at KB Securities, explained, “We estimate that the gap in DRAM process technology between SamsungElectronics and China’s CXMT stands at 5 to 7 years based on the timing of mass production,” adding, “Competitiveness in the memory semiconductor sector is determined not merely by the development of new processes, but by the ability to ensure stable mass production, secure high yields, and obtain customer certifications.” He continued, “While CXMT is improving the technical maturity of its existing processes, SamsungElectronics is continuing to advance its technology, focusing on next-generation leading-edge processes and HBM,” adding, “Market concerns about China’s technological catch-up are excessive; it is time to focus on SamsungElectronics’ pace of technological innovation and high barriers to entry rather than CXMT’s rate of catch-up.” Han Dong-hee, an analyst at SKSecurities, stated, “Although SK hynix’s forward P/E (price-to-earnings ratio) for 2027 is only 3.7 times, its profit-generating capacity ranks among the very best globally. Considering its shareholder return policy (at least 50% of cumulative free cash flow from 2026 to 2028), the shareholder return scenario approaches 11% of the current market capitalization in 2027 and 14% in 2028,” he said, "The reason shareholder returns across the memory industry are significant is that, despite expanding investments for growth, the sector is transforming into a structure capable of sustaining large-scale returns," he emphasized. Of course, cautionary views remain. This is because, despite strong earnings from domestic and international companies, investors are reacting more strongly to China’s pursuit of semiconductor leadership and concerns about an AI bubble. Park Jae-hwan, an analyst at EUGENE INVESTMENT & SECURITIES, advised, “Considering the unfavorable macroeconomic environment as well, it seems unlikely that these concerns will be resolved in the short term, and investors need to be mindful of the possibility that this period of heightened volatility will continue for the time being.”
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