[Edaily Reporter Bang Sung Hoon ] International oil prices have come very close to their highest levels since the outbreak of the Iran war. Fears that the conflict could spread throughout the Middle East have intensified after the U.S. decided to evacuate some of its officials and their families from Saudi Arabia.

On the 22nd (local time), December Brent crude futures—the international benchmark—closed at $113.17 per barrel, up 4% from the previous trading day. This marks the highest level since May 4, narrowing the gap to the year’s highest closing price of $118.35—recorded in late March—to 4.4%. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude closed at $99.47, up 2.4%, and remained around $99 in Asian markets on the 23rd.

As the war—which began when the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran in late February—enters its eighth month, Brent crude has risen by more than 85% this year. Prices for petroleum products, such as diesel, have surged even more sharply.

The sharp rise on that day followed the U.S. State Department’s order for non-essential personnel and their families stationed in Saudi Arabia to evacuate. The State Department explained that attacks on Saudi Arabia by Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen could rapidly spread to surrounding areas.

Oil prices had been on the rise since Reuters reported on the 21st that some U.S. embassy personnel in the Gulf region would be included in the evacuation order. However, a State Department spokesperson told MarketWatch that the evacuation order was limited to personnel and their families stationed in Saudi Arabia.

The Houthis recently claimed responsibility for the attack on the port of Yanbu on Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea coast, as well as attacks on oil fields and airports that resulted in casualties. Bloomberg reported that Saudi state-owned oil company Aramco evacuated employees from its headquarters in Dammam and instructed them to work from home on the 22nd after an alarm sounded.

Matt McManus, a senior researcher at the National Energy Analysis Center, a bipartisan U.S. energy think tank, noted, “The evacuation of diplomatic personnel is a routine measure driven by security concerns rather than politics,” but added, “It signals that local infrastructure is at risk, and given Saudi Arabia’s massive oil production, the ripple effects on the market will be significant.”

The market is particularly on edge because Saudi Arabia has historically served as an “alternative” in the event of a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. William Stern, CEO of Cardiff, a U.S. small business lender, said, “Saudi Arabia has been a lifeline in case the situation in the Strait of Hormuz deteriorates, but now we’re genuinely worried about Plan B,” adding, “Traders are pricing in the assumption that the war will continue even after next month’s midterm elections.”

U.S. President Donald Trump’s assurance that oil prices would fall immediately after the midterm elections is also losing credibility.

Soaring shipping costs are escalating into a “second energy shock.” Some analysts note that shipping costs have become just as important as crude oil prices. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), freight rates for transporting crude oil from the Middle East Gulf to Asia via large oil tankers surpassed $37 per barrel (approximately 49,000 won) in mid-month, jumping to more than five times the pre-war level.

Researcher McManus assessed, “We are at the starting point of a long-term, structural shift in the way oil is distributed globally.” Iraq, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Saudi Arabia are expanding their export routes and storage facilities beyond the Gulf. He explained that as crude oil production in the U.S., Canada, Brazil, and Guyana hits record highs, the global energy center of gravity is shifting toward the Western Hemisphere.

Crude oil exports from the Gulf region have recovered to near pre-war levels, with oil tankers traveling through the Strait of Hormuz with their location signals turned off. However, disruptions in the supply of petroleum products have been compounded by Ukraine’s attacks on Russian refining facilities. Governments around the world are releasing strategic oil reserves, and President Trump is pushing forward with oil price stabilization policies, such as diesel trade with Russia.