[Edaily Reporter Kim Kook Bae ] It has been revealed that even when combined, the current account surpluses recorded by Germany and Japan in the second quarter of this year were smaller than South Korea’s. This marks the first time since 1996—when comparable statistics became available—that South Korea has surpassed the combined surplus of these two global manufacturing powerhouses. This is the result of the semiconductor boom driving South Korea’s current account surplus to an unprecedented level.

According to the Bank of Korea’s Economic Statistics System (ECOS) on the 25th, South Korea’s current account surplus for the second quarter of this year totaled $116.63 billion. This is $13.74 billion more than the combined total of Germany ($52.28 billion) and Japan ($50.62 billion), which stood at $102.89 billion. Among the 36 major countries with confirmed second-quarter figures, South Korea ranked second behind China ($193.72 billion). South Korea’s surplus stood at 60.2% of China’s, a significant increase from 22.7% a year ago.

The pace of growth is also overwhelming. South Korea’s second-quarter surplus swelled to 4.1 times the level recorded a year ago ($28.39 billion). During the same period, Germany’s surplus rose by only 11.9%, and Japan’s by 5.0%. In July and August, South Korea’s surplus reached $88.19 billion, surpassing the combined total of the two countries ($80.82 billion).

Annual figures are also expected to set a new record. In its World Economic Outlook released this month, the IMF projected that South Korea’s current account surplus this year will reach $421.9 billion, ranking second globally behind China. This marks a rise of three spots from fifth place last year. With an increase of $298.9 billion compared to last year, South Korea ranks first among 190 countries in terms of the magnitude of the increase. The current account surplus as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) is projected to reach 18.8%, surpassing the 10.1% recorded in 1998—immediately following the foreign exchange crisis—and hitting its highest level since 1980. This figure is more than four times that of China (4.0%), Germany (4.5%), and Japan (4.6%). On the 22nd, the Bank of Korea projected that this year’s surplus would exceed its previous forecast of $450 billion.

Semiconductors are at the heart of this surge in the trade surplus. Semiconductor exports in the third quarter of this year totaled $148.02 billion, a 218.7% increase compared to the same period last year. Of this amount, memory semiconductors accounted for approximately 88.3%, or $130.7 billion. The growth rate for memory exports reached 311.6%. Rising demand and prices for memory chips, driven by expanding investment in artificial intelligence (AI), boosted export revenue.

However, a trade surplus heavily reliant on semiconductors also poses a risk. If the AI investment boom cools off or memory supply from competing countries increases, causing prices to fall, the size of the surplus could shrink rapidly. The IMF forecasts that South Korea’s current account surplus will decline to $295.7 billion in 2029 and $177.5 billion in 2031. Its global ranking is also expected to drop to third and fifth place, respectively.

In a recent report, Lim Hye-yoon, an analyst at Hanwha Investment & Securities, analyzed, “The growth rate of semiconductor exports next year is expected to peak in the first quarter and then decline,” adding, “Even if excess demand persists, we may see a slowdown in price increases and a narrowing of the gap between demand and production.”