[Edaily Reporter Shin Ha-yeon ] As U.S. semiconductor stocks plummeted across the board, tension is mounting among investors in Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. With disappointing earnings from Big Tech companies compounded by concerns over a slowdown in the rise of memory prices, further shocks to the domestic stock market are expected on the 2nd. However, some analysts suggest that since some of these negative factors were already factored in last Friday, the domestic market may not see a drop on the same scale as the U.S. market.

According to the financial investment industry on the 1st, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunged 7.20% on the 30th of last month (local time). With Intel crashing 28.58%, major semiconductor stocks such as AMD (-10.88%), Micron (-5.30%), and NVIDIA (-4.22%) also fell in tandem. SK Hynix American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) also fell 7.95%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index dropped 2.86%, and the S&P 500 Index fell 1.82%.

Warning signs have also appeared in indicators that gauge the direction of the domestic stock market. The MSCI Korea Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) fell 5.52%, and KOSPI 200 overnight futures dropped 2.93%. For the domestic stock market, where large-cap semiconductor stocks account for a significant portion of market capitalization, selling pressure originating from the U.S. is creating a burdensome environment.

Recently, doubts have been growing in the market about whether AI investments can actually translate into real profits. Alphabet, Google’s parent company, recorded a free cash flow (FCF) deficit of approximately $9.1 billion due to massive investments in AI infrastructure, while earnings from its core businesses, such as search advertising, fell short of expectations. Amazon, too, saw third-quarter revenue from its cloud business, AWS, come in at $46 billion—exceeding market expectations—but the burden of annual capital expenditures totaling $220 billion came into sharp focus.

Furthermore, Intel’s earnings outlook has heightened concerns about overall semiconductor demand. Intel reported third-quarter revenue of $16.5 billion, with data center and AI revenue rising 78%, but its PC business continued to struggle. In particular, the company projected fourth-quarter revenue of $15.0 billion to $16.0 billion, falling short of market expectations. Since even the upper end of this range is lower than third-quarter revenue, concerns have grown that growth in the AI business alone will be insufficient to offset the slump in its existing businesses.

In the memory sector, concerns that the market has peaked surfaced after Japan’s Kioxia’s earnings forecast fell short of market expectations. On the 30th of last month, Kioxia projected an operating profit of approximately 2 trillion yen for the third quarter (October–December) of fiscal year 2026. This is about 15% below the market estimate of 2.35 trillion yen. The average selling price (ASP) growth rate for NAND flash memory in July–September also slowed to the 20% range quarter-over-quarter, down from 70% in the previous quarter. Concerns have intensified that the profit growth fueled by surging memory prices may be slowing.

Meanwhile, on the 30th of last month, the KOSPI closed at 5,730.74, down 3.48%. Significant selling pressure was already evident in the domestic market, with the intraday “sell-side car” mechanism triggered due to disappointing earnings from companies like Alphabet and concerns about the sustainability of AI investments. However, given that a sell-off in semiconductor stocks resurfaced in the U.S. market after the close, this could dampen investor sentiment early in Monday’s trading session.

While the stock price correction has eased valuation concerns, some analysts point out that weak supply-and-demand dynamics could limit any rebound. Kim Seong-no, an analyst at BNK Investment & Securities, stated, “Weak domestic supply and demand, coupled with a global trend toward reducing exposure to IT stocks, is unfavorable for the market,” adding, “Although the KOSPI’s attractive valuation and expectations for shareholder return policies are positive, it is still too early to expect clear upward momentum.”

The future stock price trends of Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix depend on the demand and profit outlook for their respective businesses. Rather than immediately extrapolating concerns over NAND prices to a slowdown in demand for the memory sector as a whole—including High-Bandwidth Memory (HBM)—it is necessary to examine product-specific prices and customer order trends separately. It also remains to be seen whether the investment burden faced by Big Tech companies will actually lead to a reduction in orders.

The ability of semiconductor companies to sustain share buybacks—which absorb selling pressure—also depends on the actual cash they generate. Kang Jin-hyuk, an analyst at Shinhan Investment Securities, explained, “To calm market volatility, we need to assess the two companies’ capacity for share buybacks, and the starting point for that is earnings improvement,” adding, “We must examine both how much free cash flow increases and what portion of that is actually allocated to shareholder returns.”

Some analysts also suggest that when gauging the potential for further shocks on Monday, investors should consider the extent to which last Friday’s domestic market movements have already priced in these factors. Seo Sang-young, Executive Director at Mirae Asset Securities, predicted that reports regarding Kioxia’s forecast of a slowdown in NAND price growth and Anthropic’s credit risk would weigh on investor sentiment on Monday. However, he judged that the decline would not widen significantly, as some of these concerns had already been partially priced in last Friday.

Going forward, stock prices are expected to diverge, with companies that have the financial capacity to handle expanded AI investments and can demonstrate actual order intake leading the way. Executive Director Seo noted, “Since AI demand itself remains robust, the recent market correction reflects a reassessment of whether companies can handle the massive investment costs and how quickly they can convert these into profits, rather than doubts about the industry’s growth potential.” He added, “Differentiation will continue between companies with strong internal cash generation capabilities and those heavily reliant on debt, as well as between semiconductor and networking companies with confirmed actual demand.”