[Edaily Kim Sang-yoon Reporter Hwang Byung-seo] As President Lee Jae-myung’s approval rating for his handling of state affairs has dropped slightly, signs of an unusual shift are emerging within the ruling party’s support base. Notably, among office workers, managers, and professionals, support for the Democratic Party of Korea fell by more than 10 percentage points in just one week, while support for the People Power Party rose by double digits. Support for the ruling party has also weakened in the Seoul metropolitan area and among voters in their 40s. With expectations for economic performance wavering due to the stock market’s sharp decline, compounded by internal political conflicts within the ruling party, analysts suggest that some voters may be revising their assessments.

According to a survey conducted by the polling firm Realmeter from the 2nd to the 6th at the request of Asia Economy, which polled 2,528 voters aged 18 and older nationwide, President Lee’s approval rating for his handling of state affairs stood at 35.9%, down 1.0 percentage points from the previous week. His disapproval rating rose 0.5 percentage points to 60.6%.

While the overall decline in approval ratings was not significant, the changes by occupation were pronounced. Among office workers, managers, and professionals, the positive rating of the President’s job performance fell by 3.6 percentage points, from 37.8% to 34.2%. Support for the Democratic Party among this occupational group plummeted by 10.2 percentage points, from 42.8% to 32.6%. In contrast, support for the People Power Party rose by 11.9 percentage points, from 34.3% to 46.2%. This means the two parties’ rankings in terms of support swapped places within a single week.

This shift is drawing attention as it coincides with financial market volatility. With the recent sharp decline in the KOSPI and the controversy over the National Pension Service’s paper losses, it is suggested that these developments may have influenced public assessments of the government’s economic performance. It is particularly noteworthy that support for the ruling party fell significantly among administrative and managerial professionals, a group that is often sensitive to changes in financial markets and economic policies.

◇Ruling Party Support Weakens in the Seoul Metropolitan Area and Among Those in Their 40s… Rises Among Those in Their 50s

A similar trend was observed in the Seoul metropolitan area. The Democratic Party’s approval rating in the Incheon and Gyeonggi regions fell by 5.6 percentage points, from 39.3% to 33.7%. In contrast, the People Power Party’s rating rose by 3.5 percentage points, from 37.7% to 41.2%. In the same region, President Lee’s approval rating for his handling of state affairs also dropped from 36.8% to 33.8%.

By age group, Democratic Party support among those in their 40s fell by 6.0 percentage points, from 47.0% to 41.0%. Among those in their 30s, support also declined, from 24.2% to 21.0%. In contrast, support for the Democratic Party among those in their 50s rose by 5.7 percentage points, from 40.7% to 46.4%. Rather than a blanket defection of the ruling party’s base, political assessments appear to vary depending on age, occupation, and region.

A downward trend toward the end of the week was also evident in the daily fluctuations of the president’s approval rating. The positive rating, which stood at 39.0% on the 3rd, fell to 36.9% on the 4th, 34.6% on the 5th, and 33.8% on the 6th. This represents a 5.2 percentage point drop over three days. Although the sharp decline in the stock market on the 5th and 6th coincided with the drop in approval ratings, the ratings had already begun to fall before the financial market turmoil fully took hold.

Political factors are also difficult to rule out. The Democratic Party is experiencing internal strife stemming not only from the recent standoff between the ruling and opposition parties over the forced passage of the Special Prosecutor Act on fabricated indictments but also from allegations of Shincheonji members joining the party en masse, calls for leadership accountability, and controversy over a merger with the Cho Kuk Innovation Party. Amid growing economic uncertainty, repeated political controversies may have led to mounting public fatigue with the ruling party.

◇ Support Rates Fall for Both Ruling and Opposition Parties… Only the “No-Party” Segment Rises by 2.5 Percentage Points

However, the ruling party’s drop in approval ratings did not immediately translate into gains for the opposition. In a party approval rating survey conducted on the 5th and 6th, the Democratic Party recorded 36.5%, down 1.8 percentage points from the previous week, while the People Power Party recorded 39.7%, down 0.5 percentage points. The Cho Kuk Innovation Party also fell by 1.2 percentage points to 6.9%. In contrast, the proportion of voters without a preferred party rose by 2.5 percentage points, from 8.6% to 11.1%.

While support for the People Power Party strengthened among administrative and managerial professionals and in the Seoul metropolitan area, overall support for both the ruling and opposition parties declined. This suggests that while the pattern of support for the ruling and opposition parties is shifting among certain demographic groups, there is also a growing tendency to distance oneself from the political sphere as a whole.

By region, contrasting trends were observed, such as a 10.0 percentage point rise in the president’s approval rating in Daejeon, Sejong, and Chungcheong. Therefore, it is difficult to interpret these survey results as a complete collapse of the ruling party’s support base.

It remains to be seen whether this shift is a reaction to temporary financial market shocks and political conflicts, or whether it marks the beginning of a structural erosion of trust in the ruling party. For the Lee Jae-myung administration, which has relied on economic recovery and growth as the main drivers of its governance, the shift in approval ratings among certain economically active groups is likely to be a cause for concern.

The margin of error for this presidential job approval rating survey is ±1.9 percentage points at a 95% confidence level, while that for the party approval rating survey is ±3.1 percentage points. Both surveys were conducted via automated wireless response systems, with response rates of 3.0% and 3.2%, respectively. For more details, please refer to the website of the National Election Survey Deliberation Commission.