[Edaily Reporter PARK MIN ] On the 11th, iM Securities projected that the domestic stock market would open lower as it digests profit-taking following the previous day’s sharp rebound, the shock from the U.S. October Consumer Price Index (CPI), and the financial burdens facing CoreWeave, an AI cloud company. The analysis suggests that rather than an indiscriminate, across-the-board rebound in AI-related stocks, a differentiated market trend will emerge, centered on stocks with a proven track record of securing actual orders and generating cash flow.

Yang Hyun-kyung, an analyst at iM Securities, stated in a morning market report published that day, “U.S. consumer prices in October rose 0.4% month-over-month, while core consumer prices rose 0.3%, both exceeding market expectations (0.3% and 0.2%, respectively) by 0.1 percentage points,” adding “Given that Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Christopher Waller had mentioned the possibility of a 50-basis-point (1 bp = 0.01 percentage point) benchmark interest rate hike in December if core inflation exceeded 0.3%, concerns over monetary tightening have intensified once again,” she noted. As a result, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note surged to the 4.99% range, and New York’s three major indices, along with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, all closed lower.

Researcher Yang pointed out that the prolonged high-interest-rate environment is not only constraining the recovery of stock market valuations but also increasing financing costs across the entire AI ecosystem, which relies on large-scale borrowing to fund capital expenditures (CAPEX).

It is assessed that the third-quarter earnings of CoreWeave, a leading AI neo-cloud company, clearly illustrated this point. CoreWeave reported third-quarter revenue of $3.661 billion, exceeding market expectations ($3.54 billion), and raised its full-year guidance; however, it gave back most of its gains in after-hours trading.

Analyst Yang stated, “CoreWeave’s quarterly net interest expense ($846 million) was four times its operating profit ($207 million), failing to allay concerns about cash outflows and financial burdens resulting from large-scale capital expenditures,” adding “The domestic semiconductor and materials, parts, and equipment sectors must also closely monitor not only the revenue growth of major clients but also how their financial soundness will affect future facility operations and new order schedules,” he explained.

On the previous trading day, the domestic stock market rebounded by 4.39% on the KOSPI as concerns over data center regulations—which had surfaced following the U.S. midterm elections—eased. Led by semiconductor stocks such as SamsungElectronics(005930), and SK hynix, shares in power equipment companies like HYOSUNG HEAVY INDUSTRIES and HD HYUNDAI ELECTRIC, as well as rechargeable battery stocks, surged in tandem.

Researcher Yang predicted, “Given that foreign investors returned to net buying (+443.9 billion won) on the KOSPI yesterday for the first time in eight trading days, whether follow-up capital inflows occur will determine the momentum for a further rebound in the AI infrastructure sector.” He added, “Today (the 11th), rather than a broad-based rally across AI-related sectors, we will likely see stock-specific differentiation based on the visibility of whether orders translate into revenue and cash flow.”