[Edaily Reporter Park Soon-yeop] Global investment bank Goldman Sachs has raised its 12-month target for the KOSPI from 9,000 points to 12,000 points. This marks a significant upward revision less than a month after the firm raised its target from 8,000 to 9,000 points last month. The decision reflects the prolonged semiconductor memory cycle, upward revisions to corporate earnings forecasts, and the potential for revaluation driven by the Value-Up Program.
Goldman Sachs released an investment report on the Korean market on the 3rd, setting a 12-month target for the KOSPI at 12,000 points. It maintained its “Overweight” rating on the Korean stock market. This implies that the index has room for an additional rise of about 37% from current levels.

Goldman Sachs explained that this target figure was calculated by applying a 12-month forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 8, based on solid prospects for corporate earnings improvement. Goldman Sachs stated, “We maintain our ‘overweight’ recommendation even though the KOSPI has surged more than twofold this year,” adding, “This reflects explosive corporate earnings growth and conservative valuation assumptions.”
The primary basis for forecasting further gains in the KOSPI is the semiconductor memory cycle. Goldman Sachs assessed that the market is underestimating the duration of this semiconductor supercycle. The firm analyzed that as demand for artificial intelligence (AI) computing grows faster than memory supply, semiconductor companies’ pricing power is expanding, and the magnitude of profit improvement could increase due to high operating leverage.
Goldman Sachs noted, “Currently, Korean semiconductor stocks trade at a forward P/E ratio of just 5 times,” adding, “While the market is skeptical about how long this high-profit phase will last, we are confident that this cycle will last longer than in the past.”
The firm noted that the upward trend is not limited to the semiconductor sector alone. Goldman Sachs explained that profit growth forecasts for KOSPI companies other than #SamsungElectronics and #SKHynix have also risen from 20% in January to 57% currently. This indicates that the trend of profit improvement is spreading beyond the rally centered on major semiconductor stocks to other sectors as well.
Earnings forecasts for KOSPI companies are also being rapidly revised upward. According to Goldman Sachs, while the market had projected a 2026 earnings growth rate of around 48% for KOSPI companies at the beginning of this year, that figure has recently risen to 277%. Reflecting this, Goldman Sachs raised its earnings growth forecasts for Korean companies to 320% for this year and 35% for next year. Goldman Sachs assessed that “Korea is showing by far the strongest earnings momentum in the Asian region.”
In terms of valuation, the firm analyzed that the KOSPI remains undervalued. The KOSPI is currently trading at a forward 12-month P/E ratio of 8.2x. Goldman Sachs noted that, considering the KOSPI’s forward P/E ratio has historically fluctuated between 10x and 11x during major market cycles—including both booms and recessions—the current index level remains low.
The government’s corporate governance reforms and value-up programs were also cited as factors that could drive further re-rating. Goldman Sachs noted that more than 60% of all KOSPI companies are still trading below book value—that is, at a price-to-book ratio (PBR) of less than 1—and judged that there is significant room for revaluation of low-PBR companies.
However, the firm did not rule out the possibility of a short-term correction. This is because the KOSPI has surged more than twofold this year, and market concentration has increased as the market capitalization share of Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix has exceeded 50%. The expansion of speculative trading by retail investors was also identified as a risk factor that could heighten volatility.
Nevertheless, Goldman Sachs predicted that earnings would provide a floor. Goldman Sachs stated, “Even when applying the most extreme past profit declines and bottom-range valuations to the current market, the theoretical support level for the KOSPI is calculated at 7,820 points,” adding, “While a short-term technical correction may occur, as long as corporate earnings remain solid, such a correction will actually present an opportunity to increase holdings.”