[Edaily Reporter Kwon Oh-seok] Led by #SamsungElectronics and #SKHynix, the KOSPI index came within sight of the "9,000 mark" (KOSPI 9,000). This week (Aug. 8–12), it faces a test as it enters a consolidation phase to resolve recent short-term overheating. With U.S. inflation data and the SpaceX initial public offering (IPO) emerging as key variables that could shift the global liquidity landscape, concerns are even circulating in the market that the index could fall below the 8,000-point mark.

◇ Extreme Volatility and One-Sided Market… “Expectation of a Reversal in Undervalued Stocks”
According to MP Doctor on the 7th, the KOSPI broke through the 8,900 mark intraday on the 2nd last week (1st–5th), setting a new all-time high, but showed volatility by falling to the 8,160 level on the 5th, the last trading day of the week. While the market continued its upward trend early in the week, it slipped toward the end as selling pressure from foreign investors intensified, compounded by the fallout from poor earnings at U.S. semiconductor firm Broadcom.
As U.S. stock markets plunged over the weekend, driven primarily by declines in artificial intelligence (AI) and semiconductor tech stocks, the domestic market may also experience a similar downward trend. On the 5th (local time), the S&P 500 index on the New York Stock Exchange closed at 7,383.74, down 2.64% from the previous trading day. The Nasdaq Composite Index plunged 4.18% to 25,709.43. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also fell 1.35% to 50,877.78.
In particular, as optimism surrounding AI (artificial intelligence) waned, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) plummeted 10.3%, and major AI semiconductor stocks such as Broadcom (-7.9%), Micron (-13.3%), AMD (-10.9%), and Marvell Technology (-13.3%) also recorded declines of over 10%.
Securities analysts predict that the KOSPI has entered a phase of correction following an excessive concentration of investment, and suggest that sectors currently undervalued relative to their earnings may see a turnaround. As the concentration of the KOSPI in AI-related stocks, including Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, became extreme, the ADR—which represents the ratio of rising stocks to falling stocks—fell to the 40% range. This is the lowest level since it recorded 40.24% during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Lee Kyung-min, an analyst at Daishin Securities, analyzed, "Stocks that recently led the KOSPI’s sharp rise and concentration are likely to enter a phase of cooling off and absorbing selling pressure. We believe the KOSPI, excluding a few leading sectors, may attempt a rebound to move out of the severely undervalued territory."

◇SpaceX IPO and U.S. Inflation Data Key Variables
SpaceX’s Nasdaq listing this week is one of the biggest factors that will determine the stock market. SpaceX, scheduled to list on the Nasdaq on the 12th, plans to raise $75 billion (approximately 115 trillion won)—the largest amount in history—through this IPO. If the listing is successful, its market capitalization is expected to reach $1.75 trillion (approximately 2,700 trillion won). Consequently, concerns are emerging about capital outflows from existing leading stocks.
Researcher Lee Kyung-min warned, “As the listing approaches, it could act as a black hole for global liquidity,” adding, “Capital outflows could increase in the KOSPI market, which has shown a sharp rise compared to global stock markets.”
NH Investment & Securities projected the KOSPI’s range at 7,800 to 8,900, citing U.S. inflation indicators as a factor contributing to a potential market decline. The market is forecasting that the May Consumer Price Index (CPI) will rise to 4.2%, up from 3.8% the previous month, and that the core CPI—excluding volatile food and energy prices—will rise to 2.9%, up from 2.8% the previous month. A high core CPI signals that inflationary pressures are persisting, increasing the likelihood that the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) will raise interest rates or delay rate cuts. This could trigger a stronger dollar, causing global capital to flow into the U.S. and potentially leading to capital outflows from emerging markets such as South Korea.
Lee Sang-jun, an analyst at NH Investment & Securities, noted, “Given that rising oil prices due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz are a key factor behind the current inflationary trend, the market is likely to react more sensitively to these indicators next week if the deadlock in U.S.-Iran negotiations persists.” However, he added that second-quarter earnings momentum is expected to strengthen again starting in mid-June, and that recent news that Alphabet is pursuing an $80 billion capital increase to fund AI infrastructure investments could benefit domestic AI infrastructure investments.