[Edaily Reporter Park Soon-yeop] Following the surprise U.S. employment data, concerns over interest rate hikes have grown, leading to an analysis that leading domestic and international stocks in the artificial intelligence (AI) and semiconductor value chains may show a neutral or weaker trend for the time being. However, this correction should be viewed as a “sharp, temporary correction” caused by the combined pressure of rising interest rates and supply-demand imbalances, rather than the end of the AI investment cycle. The analysis suggests that if the KOSPI falls below the 7,900 level, holding onto shares or making strategic purchases would be more advantageous than panic selling.
Kim Yong-gu, an analyst at Yuanta Securities, stated in a report published on the 8th: “The impact of the surprise U.S. employment data in May spread to a rapid rise in market interest rates, driven by deepening concerns over Fed rate hikes in the second half of the year,” adding, “This, combined with the desire for profit-taking accumulated from the monumental stock price rally and extreme concentration, as well as the supply-demand ‘black hole’ related to the SpaceX IPO and subscription, dealt a severe blow to leading AI and semiconductor value chain stocks both domestically and internationally.”

U.S. nonfarm payrolls in May came in at 172,000, significantly exceeding the market consensus of 88,000. The unemployment rate fell slightly to 4.30% from 4.34% in April. Analyst Kim viewed this strong employment data as largely temporary, reflecting a boost from the North American World Cup. However, he explained that the market interpreted the confirmation of three consecutive months of labor market stabilization as a signal that the Federal Reserve (Fed) would inevitably become more sensitive to inflation variables in its monetary policy during the second half of the year.
Consequently, investor focus shifted rapidly from “Is an interest rate hike in the second half actually possible?” to “When will the Fed proceed with a rate hike?” According to the report, the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike in December, as measured by the CME FedWatch, rose to 61.9%. As the likelihood of a rate hike came into sharp focus, market interest rates surged, and valuation pressures on growth stocks in general intensified alongside a strengthening dollar.
The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May, set to be released this week, is another source of concern. Citing the Cleveland Fed’s inflation nowcasting, Yuanta Securities estimated that the headline CPI for May would rise 4.18% year-over-year, while the core CPI would increase 2.82%. These figures are higher than the April readings of 3.81% and 2.75%, respectively. In particular, a headline CPI in the 4% range corresponds to the extremely high inflation environment last seen immediately after the COVID-19 reopening. Therefore, if inflation figures come in higher than market expectations, concerns over interest rate hikes and rate-related market volatility could intensify.
From a supply-and-demand perspective, the SpaceX IPO was identified as a short-term burden. Analyst Kim noted that a significant portion of the funds global investors are using to subscribe to SpaceX shares is being raised through profit-taking on leading AI and semiconductor value chain stocks. He explained that the Korean stock market and major semiconductor stocks—which have seen sharp short-term price increases and are sensitive to changes in interest rates, exchange rates, and foreign investor sentiment—are serving as key “ATMs” in this process.
The question is whether the funds returned from SpaceX subscriptions will flow back into the AI and semiconductor value chains. Analyst Kim believes that until SpaceX’s stock price and supply-demand conditions stabilize following the IPO, these funds are more likely to be concentrated on short-term trading related to SpaceX rather than returning to existing semiconductor stocks. Consequently, he predicts that leading AI and semiconductor stocks will inevitably see neutral or weaker price trends until the June FOMC meeting.
However, the June FOMC meeting is expected to serve as a turning point. Yuanta Securities noted that while the June economic outlook and dot plot may take on a somewhat hawkish tone, considering the downside risks to the employment environment and the disinflationary trends in housing costs and core service prices, it is highly likely that the Fed will continue its “wait-and-see” approach by keeping interest rates on hold at least until the September FOMC meeting.
Researcher Kim explained, “Immediately following the June FOMC meeting, leading domestic and international AI and semiconductor value chain stocks are likely to see their share prices and supply-demand conditions normalize,” adding, “We view the period immediately after the June FOMC meeting as a strategic opportunity for low-price buying and re-entry into these stocks from a medium- to long-term perspective.”
Regarding the index, the possibility of a short-term overreaction was acknowledged. Yuanta Securities noted that the market could overreact, potentially falling to around the 7,100 level—a decline of up to 20% from the KOSPI’s two-year high (MDD). This level is comparable to scenarios where an economic recession, stagflation, or a tightening spasm triggers market panic.
However, Analyst Kim assessed that the current global macroeconomic environment remains far from stagflation. While nominal interest rates are rising, real interest rates are stabilizing at lower levels, making it highly unlikely that a price correction severe enough to push the KOSPI down to the 7,100 level would be justified.
Accordingly, Yuanta Securities believes that below the 7,900 level—which corresponds to a 10% maximum drawdown (MDD) for the KOSPI—it is better to hold rather than sell off, and to engage in strategic buying rather than sitting on the sidelines. While investors should be wary of event risks in June in the short term, this implies that the benefits of buying are greater during periods of oversensitivity driven by interest rates and supply-demand dynamics, rather than by fundamental deterioration.
The investment strategy varies by timing. The report advises that, until the June FOMC meeting, investors should select earnings-driven stocks that have fallen excessively and possess value-up momentum within the pure value stock group based on real-style classification. The report identified key domestic demand stocks—including financials (banks, securities, and insurance), retail, cosmetics, and hotels/leisure—as safe-haven investment alternatives capable of sidestepping the pressures of high inflation, tight monetary policy, and high interest rates.
Conversely, the report suggested that the focus should shift back to growth stocks after the June FOMC meeting. The targets are real growth stocks represented by semiconductors, IT hardware, and shipbuilding, defense, and nuclear power. Specific stocks identified as alternatives with earnings momentum include #SamsungElectronics, #SKHynix, #Samsung Electro-Mechanics, #Hanwha Ocean, #LG Innotek, #Juseong Engineering, and #Isu Petasis.
Researcher Kim emphasized, “Until the June FOMC meeting, investors should focus on identifying high-quality, undervalued earnings-driven stocks within the pure value sector that have experienced excessive sell-offs.” He added, “Immediately following the June FOMC meeting, investors need to refocus on representative stocks in the AI and semiconductor value chains—which are considered true growth stocks—such as those in semiconductors, IT hardware, shipbuilding, defense, and nuclear power.”