[Edaily Reporter Park Soon-yeop] As U.S. solar stocks continue their upward trend, analysts suggest that the recent sharp decline in domestic solar stocks should be viewed as a buying opportunity at a low price. This assessment is based on the growing value of so-called “non-China” solar supply chains—excluding China—amid trends toward U.S. energy security and expanding electricity demand.
Yoon Jae-sung, an analyst at Hana Securities, stated in a report published on the 10th, “Considering that Korean solar companies are key to building a ‘Non-China’ supply chain capable of addressing short-term power shortages in the U.S. from an energy security perspective, the recent sharp drop in stock prices appears to be driven by simple supply-and-demand dynamics rather than fundamental issues.” Accordingly, he maintained an “Overweight” investment rating for the solar sector and identified #OCI Holdings and #Hanwha Solutions as top picks.

In the U.S. solar market, the corporate value of companies that have secured local supply chains is rapidly being reevaluated. On the 8th, the stock price of SUNation Energy, a U.S. residential and commercial solar installer, surged 420% in a single day following news of a merger with Suniva, a privately held solar cell manufacturer. The structure involves Suniva merging with SUNation through an all-stock swap to achieve a backdoor listing on the Nasdaq.
Hana Securities analyzed that through this transaction, the market is valuing Suniva’s enterprise value at a minimum of 800 billion won to a maximum of 2 trillion won per gigawatt (GW) of solar cell production capacity. The explanation is that the premium reflects the severe shortage of cell supply, as U.S. solar module production capacity stands at approximately 70 GW, while cell production capacity is only 3.2 GW. The fact that Suniva is in discussions with companies such as Hemlock and Corning to establish a vertically integrated polysilicon and wafer supply chain was also cited as a factor reducing uncertainty in the non-China supply chain.
In contrast, domestic solar stocks have recently shown weakness. According to the report, since early June, Hanwha Solutions has plummeted by 15% and OCI Holdings by 27%. Analyst Yoon pointed out that this stands in stark contrast to the strong performance of companies that have established non-China supply chains in the U.S., such as First Solar hitting an all-time high and T1 Energy reaching a four-year high.
In particular, Hanwha Solutions is considered to be relatively undervalued despite having a solar value chain in the U.S. Hana Securities analyzed that while Hanwha Solutions is eligible for a larger Advanced Manufacturing Production Credit (AMPC), its enterprise value per GW based on total production capacity remains at around 1.1 trillion won. The firm explained that there is room for revaluation when compared to the merged entity of SUNation and Suniva, which was valued at 800 billion won per GW based on transaction prices and 2 trillion won based on the closing price on the 8th.
The firm also projected that policy momentum would continue into the second half of the year. The U.S. Trade Expansion Act Section 232 investigation follows the submission of the Department of Commerce report with the President’s final decision and the implementation of measures; the industry believes there is a high probability that results will be confirmed in June or July. First Solar and TOYO Solar are also reported to have indicated in recent conference calls that results are expected by the end of June.
Analyst Yoon stated, “U.S. solar module prices have been rising since the beginning of the year, and momentum is likely to strengthen further in June and July,” adding, “The recent sharp decline in domestic solar stocks presents an excellent buying opportunity.” He continued, “We recommend OCI Holdings and Hanwha Solutions as our top picks.”