[Edaily Reporter Lee Hye-ra] On the 18th, Hana Securities stated regarding #Samsung Electronics, “We are raising our earnings forecast, driven by a stronger-than-expected rise in memory prices,” maintaining its “Buy” rating and raising the target price to 480,000 won.

Kim Rok-ho, an analyst at Hana Securities, stated in a report released that day, “We have revised our operating profit forecast for next year upward even after accounting for provisions for performance-based bonuses,” adding, “Although Samsung Electronics’ stock price has recently underperformed compared to global memory manufacturers, it is difficult to find clear grounds to explain this.”

The firm projected that second-quarter earnings would exceed market expectations. Hana Securities estimated Samsung Electronics’ second-quarter revenue and operating profit at 179 trillion won and 92 trillion won, respectively. Analyst Kim noted, “Amid continued strength in DRAM prices for servers and PCs, the increase in prices for low-power DRAM (LPDDR) for mobile devices significantly exceeded expectations.”
In particular, the firm explained that demand for LPDDR—used in AI CPUs, including those from NVIDIA—remains strong despite shipment adjustments by Chinese smartphone manufacturers.
Consequently, Hana Securities has set aside a provision for performance bonuses equivalent to 10% of the DS (Semiconductor) division’s operating profit starting with this forecast. It is noteworthy that the firm raised its earnings estimates despite factoring in these performance bonuses.
The firm forecast that High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) will serve as an additional growth driver next year. Analyst Kim noted, “This year, HBM4’s contribution is lower than expected due to factors such as delays in client product launches,” but added, “Next year, as the share of HBM4 expands, the effect of rising average selling prices (ASP) will become fully evident.”
He added, “General DRAM prices have risen about fourfold compared to the time of last year’s HBM price negotiations,” and noted, “In the 2027 HBM price negotiations, price increases higher than previously expected will be possible.”
Expectations for expanded shareholder returns were also highlighted as an investment point. Hana Securities estimated Samsung Electronics’ free cash flow (FCF) for this year at approximately 308.8 trillion won. The analysis suggests that if 50% of this amount is allocated to shareholder returns, the total would amount to approximately 153.2 trillion won.
Based on this, the firm estimated the scale of share buybacks at 66.4 trillion won and dividends at approximately 77 trillion won. The dividend per share is 14,850 won, and the dividend yield stands at 4.3% based on the current stock price.
Hana Securities revised its operating profit forecast for next year upward by 8% from its previous estimate, reflecting rising LPDDR prices and the potential for HBM price increases.
Analyst Kim stated, “Considering the improvement in the memory market and the large-scale shareholder return policy, the current stock price is undervalued.”