[Edaily Reporter SOYEON KIM ] As prices for general-purpose DRAM have skyrocketed due to rising memory demand driven by expanding global investment in artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure, revenue per wafer has actually surpassed that of high-bandwidth memory (HBM). This marks a reversal in profitability between HBM and general-purpose DRAM. Industry observers are increasingly predicting that HBM prices will rise sharply next year as a result.

According to market research firm DRAMeXchange on the 21st, general-purpose DRAM prices have skyrocketed nearly tenfold over the past year. The average fixed transaction price for PC-grade general-purpose DRAM (DDR4 8Gb 1Gx8), which stood at $2.10 at the end of May last year, surged to $20.00 by the end of last month. The industry estimates that during the same period, the price of DDR5 64GB RDIMM—used in servers—more than doubled, rising from around $500 to between $1,200 and $1,300.

Some analyses even suggest that, driven by the rise in general-purpose DRAM prices, revenue per wafer for server DRAM surpassed that of HBM starting in the first quarter of this year. According to estimates by market research firm TrendForce—which assessed revenue per wafer for HBM and general-purpose DRAM based on die size, yield, and price per gigabit (Gb)—revenue per wafer for the DDR5 64GB RDIMM surpassed that of HBM. This marks an unusual phenomenon in which the relative profitability of HBM—which had previously boasted the highest margins—has fallen below that of general-purpose DRAM this year.

While memory companies have focused on producing high-margin, high-value-added HBM, leading to a reduction in the supply of general-purpose DRAM and a sharp rise in its price, this has paradoxically resulted in HBM—which is more difficult to manufacture and involves a more complex process—becoming relatively less profitable.

Industry observers believe this reversal in profitability could actually serve as justification for HBM price hikes. This is because if HBM’s profitability relative to standard DRAM is not sufficiently secured, memory companies may have less incentive to actively expand HBM production.

While rising prices for standard DRAM drove the market this year, HBM price hikes are expected to gain momentum again next year. Analysts predict a high likelihood that standard DRAM and HBM prices will rise in a staggered manner. TrendForce forecast, “Next year, HBM contract prices will surge to unprecedented levels—rising several-fold,” adding, “The total memory market size is expected to exceed $1.28 trillion (approximately 1,948 trillion won) for the first time in history.”

Next year, HBM demand is expected to expand further as NVIDIA’s next-generation AI platform, “Vera Rubin,” increases the HBM capacity per graphics processing unit (GPU) to 384GB, and the adoption of AI application-specific integrated circuit (ASIC) platforms—including Google’s TPU—grows.

Forecasts indicate that the memory bottleneck will persist at least through next year. Although SamsungElectronics and SK hynix are expanding their production capacity, the next-generation memory production plants currently under construction in Pyeongtaek and Yongin are not expected to begin full-scale operations until 2028.

Consequently, earnings forecasts for SamsungElectronics and SK hynix are also being steadily revised upward. According to financial information provider FnGuide Inc., SamsungElectronics’ annual operating profit is estimated at 360 trillion won this year and 478 trillion won next year. SK hynix’s operating profit is projected to reach 261 trillion won this year and 371 trillion won next year. This implies that the two companies’ combined annual operating profit could reach 850 trillion won next year.

Ryu Young-ho, an analyst at NH INVESTMENT & SECURITIES, said, “The reversal in profitability between standard DRAM and HBM has justified HBM price hikes next year,” adding, “This will serve as a factor that further solidifies the downside protection for SamsungElectronics’ earnings next year.”