[Edaily Reporter kyoungeun kim ] IBK Investment & Securities announced on the 22nd that it is raising its KOSPI range forecast from the previous 6,500–9,000 points to 8,000–11,000 points, citing rising expectations for earnings in the semiconductor sector.
In a report released on the 22nd, Byeon Jun-ho, an analyst at IBK Investment & Securities, explained the upward revision, stating, “Domestic and international indicators, such as leading economic indicators and exports, continue to trend upward, and the trend of earnings and margin improvements, led by the semiconductor sector, is also continuing.”
The report explains that the KOSPI’s 12-month forward return on equity (ROE) has risen to 26% thanks to the semiconductor sector, and that based on the ROE-to-price-to-book (P/B) ratio scatter plot, the fair P/B ratio is approximately 2.3x, corresponding to a KOSPI level of around 10,000.
Analyst Byun emphasized, “With the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio at around 8 times, the market is significantly undervalued, indicating substantial upside potential.”
Regarding the delay in negotiations to end the war in Iran, he said, “Since neither the U.S. nor Iran can ignore the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU), elections, or economic conditions, the likelihood of a general resurgence of Middle East risks is low,” adding, “The rebound in oil prices was limited to the low single digits, suggesting that the situation is not yet particularly serious.” Although caution has resurfaced since the latter half of the week due to the stalled negotiations over the Iran crisis and Israel’s attacks on Lebanon, analysts believe the impact on the stock market will be limited.
Micron’s earnings report, scheduled for the 24th (local time) after the U.S. market closes this week, was also highlighted as a key event to watch. The market is forecasting revenue of $35.4 billion and earnings per share (EPS) of $20.3. Analyst Byun noted, “Given that earnings forecasts have been continuously revised upward and considering the strong semiconductor market, we expect strong results that exceed market expectations and positive fourth-quarter guidance,” adding, “This is likely to fuel anticipation for the second-quarter earnings of the domestic semiconductor sector, which will be announced in July.”
SamsungElectronics(005930)Regarding [Company Name], he noted a high probability of a second-quarter earnings surprise. The consensus estimate for second-quarter operating profit has been raised from 56 trillion won on April 1 to 90.5 trillion won as of the 19th, and some securities firms have even put forward a top estimate of 100 trillion won. Researcher Byun said, “Considering the upward revisions to forecasts driven by strong exports and favorable exchange rates, the higher-than-average probability of a second-quarter earnings surprise, and past instances where consecutive beat cycles lasted 4 to 6 times, we need to keep a close eye on the possibility of another surprise.”