[Edaily Reporter Park Jung-Soo ] On the 23rd, NH INVESTMENT & SECURITIES projected that AMOREPACIFIC CORPORATION(090430)’s second-quarter earnings would meet market expectations. However, reflecting the decline in valuations across the global cosmetics sector, the firm lowered its target price by 11.1% from 180,000 won to 160,000 won. It maintained its “Buy” investment rating. The closing price on the 22nd was 100,700 won.
Jeong Ji-yoon, an analyst at NH INVESTMENT & SECURITIES, stated, “Despite stable earnings this year, the price-to-earnings ratio (PER) on a 12-month forward basis has fallen to 16.6x due to supply-demand imbalances,” adding, “Performance in Western e-commerce channels will be crucial for a meaningful stock price rebound.”
NH INVESTMENT & SECURITIES highlighted the potential of new growth brands such as Estra, Ilyoon, Mamonde, Mise-en-Scène, and Labo H. In particular, the firm projected that expanded sales and improved rankings on online platforms—including social media (SNS), Amazon, and TikTok—would serve as key catalysts for a stock price recovery.
The firm projected that second-quarter consolidated revenue would reach 1.0925 trillion won, an 8.7% increase year-over-year, and operating profit would rise 35.8% to 100 billion won, in line with market consensus.
For the domestic business, the firm anticipated that a recovery in inbound demand driven by an increase in foreign tourists would lead to improved performance. It estimated that duty-free sales would rise 8% year-over-year, multi-brand store (MBS) sales would increase by 10%, and department store sales would grow by 5%. E-commerce sales are also projected to grow by 10%, with the domestic operating profit margin expected to improve by 3.1 percentage points year-over-year to 10.4%.
Overseas operations are also expected to continue their growth momentum. Regional sales growth rates are projected to be 30% in Japan, 18% in North America, and 24% in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa (EMEA), while sales in China are estimated to decline by 18%. The firm anticipates that China will remain profitable despite store closures, and that the U.S. will see a recovery in growth driven by new Laneige products and triple-digit growth at Estra.
COSRX is also expected to contribute to the improvement in earnings. NH INVESTMENT & SECURITIES estimated that COSRX’s second-quarter revenue would reach 124.6 billion won, a 30% increase year-over-year, with operating profit rising 27% to 31.2 billion won. The firm explained that sales of suncare products on Amazon in Europe are performing well, and sales of the RX line on TikTok Shop in the U.S. are expanding.
Analyst Jeong stated, “In the second half of the year, we expect to see tangible results from e-commerce channels in addition to the existing offline presence in Western markets,” adding, “The growth story centered on derma brands such as Estra and Ilyoon will be a key driver of the stock’s rebound.”