[Edaily Reporter Park Sun-Yeop ] An analysis suggests that while stock market trading volume remains at a high level, stock prices of securities firms are not fully reflecting this trend. Although expectations for improvements in brokerage and interest income remain valid, the sector’s stock prices are underperforming the broader market due to a combination of interest rate pressures and concerns that trading volume has peaked.
Na Min-wook, an analyst at DB Securities, stated in a report on the 24th, “The daily average trading volume for the third week of June reached 93.3 trillion won, based on NextTrade’s aggregate data,” adding, “Following 124.9 trillion won in the first week of June and 93.7 trillion won in the second week, the volume has stabilized relative to its previous peak.”

As of the previous day, the daily average trading volume for June stood at 101.5 trillion won, a 4.5% decrease from the previous month. However, given that trading volume remains in the 100 trillion won range, this is expected to have a positive impact on securities firms’ earnings. The daily average trading volume for the second quarter also reached 89.7 trillion won, a 34.6% increase from the previous quarter.
Customer fund indicators also continue to show improvement. The outstanding balance of margin loans stood at 37.9 trillion won, up 16.7% from the end of the previous quarter, while the balance of customer deposits reached 129.4 trillion won, a 17.3% increase over the same period. Analyst Na predicted, “Considering that the average balances of credit facilities and customer deposits increased by 14.8% and 17.2%, respectively, the upward trend in brokerage-related interest income is expected to continue in the second quarter.”
The issue lies with stock prices. While expectations for improved second-quarter earnings remain as trading volume and credit extension balances continue to rise, the stock prices of securities firms under coverage rose by only 3.2% on average compared to the previous quarter. Compared to the end of the previous month, they actually fell by 4.0%. During the same period, the securities sector index dropped 13.7% from the previous month, underperforming the KOSPI by 21.2 percentage points.
On a stock-by-stock basis, the decline was particularly pronounced for companies highly sensitive to brokerage performance— KIWOOM Securities(039490). KIWOOM Securities fell 9.0% compared to the end of the previous month, recording the largest drop among the covered stocks. In contrast, NH INVESTMENT & SECURITIES(005940), which has a relatively high dividend yield within the sector, rose 2.0%. This suggests that preferences for dividend stability, rather than benefits from rising trading volume, along with concerns over interest rates and valuation pressures, led to this divergence in stock prices.
Analyst Na cited the market’s concentration on semiconductors, concerns over trading volume peaking out, and the burden of high interest rates as reasons why securities stocks failed to gain momentum despite the KOSPI recently breaking through the 9,000 mark. He explained, “Although trading volume hit a record high in early June, the disconnect with stock prices persists,” adding, “Based on recent closing prices, the average price-to-book (P/B) ratio for brokerages under our coverage stands at 1.08x, down 34.8% from its previous peak.”
Earnings outlook is improving. With average daily trading volume in the 100 trillion won range continuing through May and June, the 2026 net income consensus for the covered securities firms has been steadily revised upward since the beginning of the year. Brokerage revenue and net interest income are driving this earnings improvement.
However, analysts believe there are still significant variables that make it difficult to be optimistic about second-quarter earnings. The burden of bond valuation losses remains, and the base effect resulting from valuation gains on non-marketable assets in the previous quarter must also be considered. The possibility of a slowdown in the investment banking (IB) division is another concern. Consequently, analysts suggest that the direction of stock prices in the securities sector may become more sensitive to interest rate trends than to trading volume.
Analyst Na stated, “While the upward trend in brokerage and net interest income is expected to continue in the second quarter, the direction of interest rates has become even more critical given the burden of bond valuation losses, the base effect from the previous quarter’s valuation gains on non-marketable assets, and a potential slowdown in the investment banking (IB) sector.” He added, “In the current environment of high interest rate pressure, I recommend approaching the securities sector from a short-term trading perspective for the time being.”